China’s Deepening Housing Problems Spook Investors
Stocks in Hong Kong and mainland China drop after developer Country Garden flags more debt problems
3 min
China’s latest property crisis is threatening to spill over into the broader economy, worrying investors and causing a broad market selloff.
Chinese stocks fell in Hong Kong and mainland China on Monday, with real-estate developers, electric-vehicle manufacturers and other companies in economically sensitive sectors declining the most. The Hang Seng Index, which is loaded with Chinese companies, dropped 1.6%, taking its year-to-date loss to 5.1%. China’s CSI 300 of large-cap stocks fell 0.73%, and is also in the red for 2023.
The financial struggles of Country Garden Holdings, China’s top surviving privately run developer, have been front-and-centre since it missed interest payments on two U.S. dollar bonds a week ago. The property giant said over the weekend that trading in 11 of its yuan-denominated domestic bonds has been suspended, and that it intends to discuss repayment plans with investors. Country Garden’s Hong Kong-listed shares, which had been relegated to penny-stock status last week, fell another 18%on Monday.
China’s property sector has gone from being a major contributor to the country’s overall growth to a drag on its economy. New home sales increased in the first few months of 2023, providing a glimmer of hope that the worst of the housing downturn was over. The market turned in April, and nationwide sales at China’s top developers have slumped since. Country Garden’s latest problems are likely to turn off potential home buyers, further delaying a housing recovery.
Data released last week showed that China was slipping into deflation. Households, which have racked up high levels of savings, are also borrowing less.
Chinese banks extended the equivalent of $47.8 billion in new loans in July, down nearly half from the same month a year ago. It was also the lowest monthly total in more than a decade, according to data provider Wind. The July figures reflected slightly higher corporate lending and a drop in lending to households.
The loan data was “a big letdown,” as it reflected a lack of demand for borrowing, said May Ling Wee, a Chinese equities portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors. “Animal spirits are very low in China, and the government may need to do some pump-priming,” said Wee.
China’s economic troubles are also weighing on its currency. The offshore yuan depreciated past 7.28 to the U.S. dollar on Monday, and is close to its weakest level this year.
The country is scheduled to release a barrage of economic data on Tuesday, including monthly updates for real-estate investment, factory output and retail sales.
Problems are also cropping up in other financial-asset classes in China. Three publicly listed companies said in recent days that they didn’t receive payments they were promised on wealth-management products sold by Zhongrong International Trust, which is part of Zhongzhi Enterprise Group, a large domestic Chinese conglomerate. The missed payments are making investors worried about China’s sprawling trust industry, which has been a source of funding for property developers in the past.
Country Garden admitted to having liquidity problems last week and said it expects to post a big first-half loss. A default by the 31-year-old developer could have a bigger impact on China’s economy than the slow-motion fallout from China Evergrande Group’s debt crisis that began in 2021, some economists predict.
The company withstood the earlier slump that took down Evergrande and Sunac China, which together with Country Garden had been China’s three biggest privately run developers. “Country Garden’s default would mean a complete reshuffle and reorganisation of China’s real-estate industry,” said Wang Shengzu, global head of asset management at Haitong International.
When Evergrande defaulted on its international debt, China’s economy was in much better shape. The country was enjoying a boom in exports, and global investors widely believed that growth and domestic demand were being suppressed by its strict Covid-19 pandemic restrictions. China has since lifted those restrictions, but its economy has sputtered.
Before the downturn, Country Garden’s annual contracted sales were close to that of Evergrande’s by total value, but the former’s larger presence in China’s less prosperous cities meant it sold more homes at cheaper prices.
Country Garden also has a lot of unfinished property projects, as it was common for Chinese developers to sell partially built homes along with commitments to complete them in a few years. The company’s contract liabilities, a proxy for its unfinished projects, totalled the equivalent of $92.3 billion at the end of 2022, according to Country Garden’s last financial report.
The property sector is at a critical juncture, said Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie Group. Plunging sales are a result of weak consumer confidence, and it is going to be hard for non-state-owned developers to survive in the absence of government help, he added. “Policy is the only game in town,” he said, referring to expectations that Chinese authorities will act to stop the market’s continued slide.
Shares of China’s homegrown electric-vehicle manufacturers dropped Monday, after Elon Musk’s Tesla cut prices in the country for two versions of its top-end Model Y car. Domestic rival BYD declined 6.1% in Hong Kong, while Nio, XPeng and Li Auto fell 2% to 3%.
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Chris Dixon, a partner who led the charge, says he has a ‘very long-term horizon’
Americans now think they need at least $1.25 million for retirement, a 20% increase from a year ago, according to a survey by Northwestern Mutual
This agreement aims to foster the development of robust partnerships between the communities of both regions.
4 min
The Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry has recently signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Dubai Chambers, marking a significant step towards enhancing cooperation and strengthening economic and trade relations between Dubai and Australia. This strategic agreement aims to foster the development of robust partnerships between the business communities in both regions.
In today’s interview, we will delve with Mr. Lyall Gorman, Vice President of the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, into the objectives and anticipated impacts of this MoU, explore the key initiatives and projects that will arise from this collaboration, and discuss the potential challenges and strategies for overcoming them.
We will also look into how this agreement aligns with the broader strategic goals of the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry and the future of trade relations between Australia and the Middle East.
Can you give us a brief overview of the MoU signed with the Dubai Chamber? What are the main objectives?
The MoU we signed is designed for the two chambers to collaborate for mutual benefit and interest, focusing on business-to-business interactions. We are currently exploring opportunities around delegations, information sharing, trade, commerce, and e-commerce. The main goal is to bring businesses together in a structured manner to share ideas and encourage positive outcomes.
This partnership aims to increase the understanding of each other’s economies, recognize opportunities in each other’s regions, and work together to create mutual benefits. By doing that, we hope to enhance the economic ties between Dubai and Australia, leveraging each other’s strengths to create a more dynamic and prosperous business environment.
How do you see this MoU impacting trade relations between Australia and Dubai in the short and long term?
In the short term, we are expecting to generate a significant increase in awareness. By sharing information, data, and demographic insights, we will gain a better understanding of each other’s economic environments. This will help us identify existing opportunities for collaboration and potential mutual investment. From a trade perspective, we anticipate increased exports from Australia to Dubai and vice versa. This could include areas such as disruptive technology, medical research, education, construction, and agriculture—sectors that are currently emerging and critical.
In the long term, this enhanced understanding and collaboration will allow us to identify and capitalize on more opportunities. It’s about recognizing what’s happening in each other’s regions, understanding potential opportunities, and working together to create economic value. By fostering a deeper economic connection, we aim to create sustainable growth and mutual benefits over time.
What sectors or industries do you see as the primary beneficiaries of this partnership?
There are several mutual opportunities we aim to explore. Dubai has evolved incredibly over the last 20 years, achieving remarkable growth. However, there are still areas where further cooperation can drive growth. Some of the key initiatives will focus on sectors such as AI, digital disruptive technologies, smart technologies, financial services, education, construction, and advanced technologies.
Australia is highly regarded for its building codes and manufacturing capacity, especially in the construction sector. Additionally, I believe food security presents an interesting opportunity. As a major exporter of meat and other food products, Australia can contribute significantly to food security discussions, which is particularly relevant for Dubai.
Education is another area with significant potential for collaboration. By exploring these sectors, we aim to implement projects that not only address current challenges but also pave the way for sustainable development and innovative solutions in both regions.
What challenges do you foresee in the implementation of this MoU, and how do you plan to address them?
The cultural differences can impact how business is conducted, and this requires careful navigation. To address this, we need open and transparent communication, fostering a spirit of collaboration and mutual respect. It’s essential to have a genuine desire to embrace each other’s cultural differences and find common ground.
Another potential challenge is ensuring that both sides fully understand and adapt to each other’s regulatory environments and market dynamics. Dubai has matured significantly into a global business and corporate hub, which helps, but there are still differences to consider.
By prioritizing understanding and respect, and committing to ongoing learning from each other, we can effectively manage these challenges. Working together in a considerate and respectful manner will be crucial in overcoming any hurdles that may arise during the implementation of this MoU.
How does this MoU align with ACCI’s broader strategic goals for international trade and collaboration?
This MoU aligns closely with ACCI’s broader strategic goals by emphasizing the importance of fostering and diversifying economic partnerships on a global basis. The current global geopolitical situation has underscored the need for diversifying our supply chains and business relationships.
From an Australian perspective, the lessons learned during the COVID-19 pandemic and the evolving geopolitical environment have further highlighted the necessity of expanding our economic partnerships.
The Middle East, including the GCC, are regions where Australia already has strong relationships that can be further strengthened. Therefore, by working together, collaborating, and sharing knowledge and forward-thinking ideas, this MoU will help us identify and shape initiatives that add value and align with our strategic goals for international trade and collaboration.
How do you envision the future of trade relations between Australia and the Middle
I believe it will become stronger, more robust, and more regular, all for mutual benefit. There is a genuine willingness between both regions to grow and expand this relationship through a partnership model rather than a transactional one. This approach involves setting short, medium, and long-term goals, fostering a thriving and enduring relationship.
We have already established a strong partnership with Dubai Chambers and maintain a good relationship with the Dubai International Chamber here in Australia, led by Sophia Demetriades Toftdahl. This aligns with our strategic goal of global diversification in business.
Additionally, we recently signed an MoU with the Qatar Chamber and are about to sign with the Abu Dhabi Chamber as well.
Engaging with Saudi Arabia also makes sense, as it is a significantly emerging country. The last few years under new leadership have brought clarity to its economic, political, and social future and a strong passion and drive to become a major player in the region and global stage
Chris Dixon, a partner who led the charge, says he has a ‘very long-term horizon’
Americans now think they need at least $1.25 million for retirement, a 20% increase from a year ago, according to a survey by Northwestern Mutual
