Australians continue to bank on housing as pathway to wealth | Kanebridge News
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Australians continue to bank on housing as pathway to wealth

A shortage of supply has only strengthened appetites for entering the residential property market

By KANEBRIDGE NEWS
Wed, Jul 19, 2023 9:05amGrey Clock 2 min

Residential real estate in Australia accounts for $9.8 trillion, almost three times more than superannuation savings, new data reveals.

In signs that residential real continues to be the most popular pathway to wealth in this country, CoreLogic Australia’s Housing Chart for the June quarter shows that Australian superannuation is valued at $3.5 trillion while Australian listed stocks sit at $2.8 trillion and commercial real estate at $1.3 trillion. Those figures are set against borrowing levels with Australian mortgage holders in debt to the tune of $2.2 trillion.

The results come on the back of growing calls to address housing affordability issues and concerns about the effects of rising mortgage repayments caused by a 4 percent increase in the cash rate in just over 12 months that have left more households in financial stress.

The CoreLogic report also revealed that national home values have continued to rebound this quarter, up 2.8 percent, although they are still down -5.3 percent over the past 12 months.

CoreLogic research director Tim Lawless said the lack of housing supply was putting further pressure on rising home values.

“Through June, the flow of new capital city listings was nearly -10 percent below the previous five-year average and total inventory levels are more than a quarter below average,” he said.  “Simultaneously, our June quarter estimate of capital city sales has increased to be 2.1 percent above the previous five-year average.”

CoreLogic head of research Eliza Owen said for investors, motivations for the rental hikes imposed on tenants was less clear. While she noted that many investors had not passed on the full impact of the increase in the cash rate –  ATO data from 2020-2021 financial year showed that 47.1 percent of investment properties were negatively geared – the economics of supply and demand were still a factor.

“Irrespective of mortgage costs, rents can generally only rise substantially if the rental market is competitive, and tenants cannot find alternative accommodation to bargain with; in other words, rents rise when demand for rental accommodation is outweighing supply,” she said.  

“Looking at rental supply in the context of rate movements, it’s clear that a tightening in the rental market occurred well before interest rates started to rise. The rental market started to tighten in mid-2020, while the cash rate wouldn’t go up for another two years.” 

Earlier this week, Ray White chief economist Nerida Conisbee noted that while construction costs, particularly for key materials, had started to ease, building approvals were failing to meet demand for housing.

“Building approvals are currently at a decade low and it will take some time for the pipeline to build,” she said. “In the meantime, population growth is particularly strong. Last year, we saw an increase of almost 500,000 people. 

“That means that in just one year, we need roughly an additional 200,000 homes. With 173,000 homes built last year, we are falling short in just one year by 27,000 homes.”  



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UAE Residential Market Review Shows Strong Growth and Record Transactions in Q1 2024

The total transaction volume in Abu Dhabi for the first quarter of the year reached 2,795.

Thu, May 16, 2024 4 min

The CBRE Middle East, a global leader in commercial real estate services and investments, released its latest edition of the UAE Residential Market Review for the first quarter of 2024.

Abu Dhabi Market Overview

During the first quarter of the year, the total volume of transactions in Abu Dhabi stood at 2,795, registering a 22.6% increase compared to the year prior. This increase has been underpinned by an 18.1% rise in off-plan sales and a 34.5% rise in secondary market sales. In the year to Q1 2024, Abu Dhabi’s average apartment and villa prices increased by 4.3% and 2.3%, respectively.

Abu Dhabi’s rental market witnessed a total of 46,130 residential rental contracts in Q1 2024, registering a decline of 10.9% from the year prior. This has been due to a 15.5% decline in the number of renewed rental contracts registered and a 2.4% drop in new rental registrations over the same period. In the year to Q1 2024, average apartment and villa rents have increased by 4.5% and 1.1%, respectively. On the supply front, only 80 units have been delivered in Abu Dhabi in the first three months of the year, with all of this new stock being in Al Raha Beach. An additional 8,660 units are expected to be completed by year-end with 55.8% of this scheduled stock located in Yas Island, Al Sowwah, and Al Shamkha.

Dubai Market Insights

In Dubai, price growth has continued to accelerate during the first quarter of 2024, with average prices increasing by 20.7% in the year to March 2024. Throughout this period, average apartment and villa prices increased by 20.4% and 22.1%, respectively. Although headline average sales rates are still marginally below the 2014 highs by 0.1%, several prominent residential neighbourhoods have already surpassed their 2014 figures.

As of March 2024, average apartment prices stood at AED 1,486 per square foot, and average villa prices reached AED 1,776 per square foot. Average villa sales rates are currently above their 2014 baseline by 22.9%. Rental growth has also gained momentum in 2024, after a period of moderation in 2023. In March 2024, average residential rents registered a year-on-year increase of 21.2%, up from the 20.4% growth registered a month earlier. Over this period, average apartment and villa rental rates grew by 22.1% and 14.5%, respectively. Data from the Dubai Land Department revealed that, in the year to date to March 2024, the total number of rental registrations stood at 159,941, marking an increase of 5.8% from the previous year. As for supply, a total of 6,526 units were delivered in the first quarter of the year, with 59.7% of this supply being located in Meydan One, Jumeirah Village Circle, and Al Furjan. A further 46,086 are expected to be handed over the remainder of the year. However, given historic materialisation rates, the report expects that a limited portion of this upcoming stock will come online as planned.

Record-Breaking Transactions

March 2024 witnessed another record in Dubai’s residential market, with transaction volumes reaching the highest monthly figure on record, marking a year-on-year growth of 13.2%. Throughout this period, off-plan sales and secondary market sales increased by 20.2%, and secondary market sales increased by 2.2%.

In the first quarter of 2024, Dubai’s total transaction volumes reached 35,310. This is the highest total ever recorded in the first quarter of the year, marking an increase of 20.5% from the year prior. Over this period, off-plan transactions recorded an increase of 23.9%, and secondary market transactions rose by 15.2%.

However, in Q1 2024, the total number of sales transactions within the prime market segment registered a decline of 2.1% compared to the year prior. Throughout this period, super-prime transactions recorded a drop of 16.5% year-on-year to stand at a total of 227. These declines witnessed in both markets have been largely underpinned by significant declines in off-plan sales largely attributable to the high levels of demand for off-plan properties and the limited level of upcoming supply. In terms of performance, in the first quarter of 2024, average prime prices registered a year-on-year increase of 16.0%, standing at an average of AED 4,661 per square foot, and average super-prime prices grew by 14.8% over this period, reaching AED 4,978 per square foot.

Taimur Khan, CBRE’s Head of Research MENA in Dubai

Future Projections 

Looking ahead, CBRE expects Dubai’s residential sales market to maintain its upward trajectory. Prices in both the apartment and villa segments of the market will continue to grow, however, not at the same pace. On the rental front, we forecast that residential rents will continue to increase. That being said, the rate of growth will likely moderate.

Taimur Khan, CBRE’s Head of Research MENA in Dubai, comments: “The UAE’s residential market started the year on a relatively strong note, where the elevated demand levels continue to drive performance. The strong levels of activity and high absorption levels, which have reduced available supply, will continue to support price growth in both Abu Dhabi and Dubai over the remainder of the year. In terms of rental growth, we expect that rental rates in Abu Dhabi will continue to rise, with prime areas set to outperform the market. In Dubai, residential rents will continue to increase; however, not at the same rate that we have been seeing to date, and we expect that the rate of change will diminish in the second half of the year.”

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