It has been less than a year since OpenAI changed the world overnight with the release of ChatGPT. Since its November launch, the chatbot’s display of generative artificial-intelligence software has triggered a reshuffling of investment priorities in Silicon Valley, on Sand Hill Road, and on Wall Street. Almost every company—and this goes well beyond tech—has prioritised the development and adoption of generative AI.
The notion of artificial intelligence, or computers that can “think,” has been around since the Cold War. What makes generative AI so fresh is the ability to answer questions posed as simple natural-language requests—and respond with rich, creative content in the form of text, music, video, images, or even poetry.
Generative AI promises to democratise the power of large data sets, making it dramatically easier for people and businesses to find information, create content, and analyse data. And yet, AI isn’t magic, despite all appearances to the contrary. The technology is creating widespread worries about the misappropriation of personal information, the misuse of copyright-protected content, and the creation of false and misleading data. Some people even see AI as an existential risk to the future of life on Earth—a recent Time magazine cover asked whether AI will eventually lead to “The End of Humanity.”
To consider the outlook for AI, how it works, where the risks lie, and who will lead the way, Barron’s assembled a panel of five experts who approach AI from divergent angles. Our AI roundtable panelists included Dario Gill, director of research at IBM, which has spent decades working on artificial-intelligence software and hardware; Irene Solaiman, policy director at Hugging Face, a marketplace for AI models, data sets, and software; Cathy Gao, a partner at Sapphire Ventures, which has committed to investing at least $1 billion in AI-focused start-ups; Mark Moerdler, a software analyst at Bernstein Research who completed a doctorate in computer science and artificial intelligence in 1990; and Brook Dane, a portfolio manager at Goldman Sachs who lately has revamped his investment strategy to focus on AI stock plays.
The conversation took place in early August on Zoom. An edited version follows.
Barron’s:Let’s start by framing just how big a deal generative AI is. The biggest thing since the Web? The iPhone? Electricity? The wheel? Dario, IBM has been working on AI for decades—it has been 12 years since Watson’s famous appearance on Jeopardy. So, what has changed?
Dario Gil: IBM has actually been involved in AI since 1956, the year of a famous conference we co-sponsored called the Dartmouth Summer Project on Artificial Intelligence. Arthur Samuel, an IBM computer scientist who did pioneering work in AI, coined the term “machine learning” in 1959. So, yes, the idea of AI has been around for a long, long time. The past decade or so has been the era of deep learning and neural networks, where we discovered that if you could label enough data, you could achieve superhuman levels of accuracy.
But that turned out to be extremely expensive.
Gil: Right. There were only a handful of institutions that could actually amass enough labeled data—say, hand-tagged photographs—to generate good value and a reasonable return on investment. The fundamental reason why there’s so much excitement around AI now is this transition toward “self-supervision.”
Explain that for us.
Gil: The advent of foundational models—the basis of generative AI—allows us to take large amounts of unlabelled data and create very powerful representations of language, code, chemistry, and materials, or even images. And as a consequence of that, once you train these models, the downstream use cases allow you to fine-tune or prompt or engineer them with a fraction of the energy, effort, and resources that historically would have been required to create those use cases. It’s what is unlocking this productivity moment in AI.
Bill Gates has said that ChatGPT was the most impressive technology he’d experienced since he first saw a graphical user interface in 1980—that it was as fundamental as the creation of the microprocessor, the PC, the internet, or the mobile phone. Nvidia [ticker: NVDA] CEO Jensun Huang says AI is having an iPhone moment. Cathy, Sapphire just announced a commitment to invest $1 billion in AI start-ups. Does this moment really feel that big? What is the opportunity that Sapphire sees?
Cathy Gao: In AI, we invest end to end, in everything from the plumbing to how data move through the stack to the application layer. With AI, we are definitely seeing a similar arc to other platform shifts. We believe that this is a significant platform shift. We’re in the early stages of that explosion, headed ultimately to ubiquity.
But why now? What makes this the moment?
Gao: It’s being driven by many things. One of the keys is that the consumer imagination has been captured. ChatGPT reached 100 million users in a groundbreaking two months. You can see a future where AI becomes so ubiquitous that companies no longer market themselves as “AI companies” because they’ve all become AI companies. In part, this is about ease of use, the ability to leverage foundational models via API [application program interface, a protocol for software programs to connect], so you’re not having to rebuild them every time. You’re not having to build these LLMs [large language models] from scratch. And the other element is the end-user experience, which will take us to the next phase of ubiquity.
Mark, you earned a doctorate in artificial intelligence a few decades back. What’s different now?
Mark Moerdler: It feels like 100 years ago. We were learning how to do very basic things with AI. Since then, we’ve seen massive improvements in technology. Underlying computing capabilities have massively expanded. You couldn’t run the types of learning models that you can do today, because the computers couldn’t deal with that capacity. We were using far smaller computers, with less memory, storage, and bandwidth.
And I would agree with Cathy that this is all about conversational AI. Until now, it’s all been under the hood. Now, you can hold a conversation with software in the same way you might talk to a person, and the system will respond to you, maybe with a report, or by creating an image, or simply with an ongoing conversation.
This was all sparked by ChatGPT and a consumer experience, natural-language chat. Will consumers—and advertising—ultimately be the revenue source for this business, or will it be more about a growing market for enterprise applications?
Moerdler: Some of the largest companies in the world—including Microsoft [MSFT] and Alphabet [GOOGL]—are involved in both consumer and enterprise AI software. There will be disruption on the consumer side, in terms of where you search for information. But arguably, the bigger value creation is going to be unlocking the data within enterprises, to leverage that data to drive efficiencies within organizations, make leaps of intuition in coming up with answers, or make decisions faster, or in some cases reach conclusions you couldn’t previously reach because you didn’t have easy access to the data.
Gao: What’s happening in Gen AI on the consumer side and the B2B—or business-to-business—side are highly symbiotic. They’re feeding into each other. There is a huge opportunity for enterprise software companies today, and that’s why you’re seeing a lot of investment. Gen AI is the ultimate double-edged sword. On the one hand, it represents tremendous potential to be transformative, and the key to future growth. But it can also create new competition that could be hard to beat, in some cases creating existential risk for the incumbents.
Gen AI can increase the addressable market for many companies and industries. Take a core system of record like ERP, or electronic medical records, or a payroll service like ADP, which stores a lot of valuable data. Often, the existing customer interface layer limits many potential use cases. Gen AI can be used to reimagine and reinvent workflows, and to open up the addressable markets in a significant way.
Irene Solaiman: It’s important to step back and think about what systems we are discussing, because there are so many language models out there. When we’re talking about generative AI, the way you would do research on or adapt them to a given application is going to different by modality. There’s a lot of chatter around chatbots, but there’s a lot happening with imagery and audio and even video that isn’t the subject of as much research or literature as there is for language. There’s so much opportunity.
Remember, also, that these base systems often aren’t developed for a specific use case. They may be optimized for tasks like code generation. But generally, they can be applied to many different fields, which is exciting. There are also risks; we need to figure out what safeguards we need.
Irene, I was visiting the Hugging Face website and was struck by the number of models and data sets your site offers. This isn’t just about Microsoft, Meta Platforms [META], or Alphabet.
Solaiman: We have almost 300,000 different models, over 100,000 applications, and more than 50,000 data sets. Not all of the models are focused on natural-language processing. There are models for more-specific fields, like biomedical AI. There’s a lot of discussion around advanced models like OpenAI’s GPT4. But that’s not what everyone is going to use. Large language models are computationally expensive to run. At Hugging Face, we’re seeing a lot of researchers use much smaller models that are cheaper to adapt and fine-tune.
That raises questions about where the value lies—and who the winners will be. Brook, it’s your job to identify AI winners. Do you see the value going to those that have the data, or the application vendors, or someone else? How do you approach that when looking for AI-related companies in which to invest?
Brook Dane: It’s incredibly early in this journey, especially when you look beyond the providers of semiconductor and networking infrastructure, like Nvidia, which has a near-monopoly on graphics processors used to train models. When you think about the software layer, it is TBD—to be determined—on some of these things. Early on, though, it appears that this idea that data have gravity and will be the source of competitive advantage appears to be true. We’re focused on that.
Beyond infrastructure, we are spending the bulk of our time on data, and which players can drive value and capture value over time. The other issue is that, unlike some other big tech transitions of the past, you don’t have to rewrite the entire software stack. In other words, I wonder whether there will be as much disruption to the leaders in the marketplace as in previous shifts. The shift to mobile and the internet created a whole new class of companies that rose up and displaced the incumbents. I wonder if this time the incumbents will actually reinforce their power, because they already have the data.
Moerdler: I agree. The speed of building models is very high. We’re talking months, not years. It’s just a matter of money. Differentiation is going to create sustainable value where you can create something trained on unique data and capabilities—and where the uniqueness is sustainable. In traditional software, the moat was created because it took so much time to create the technology. For a competitor to catch up took a really long time. Here, everyone is building capabilities. If you can’t differentiate, you aren’t going to be able to monetise it.
We’ve talked a lot about models and data sets. What differentiates the two?
Moerdler: When people talk about models, there are several types. There are generic models trained on very large data sets, for the purposes of answering more generalised queries, like ChatGPT and Bing. There are specialised models for very specific problems—say, in chemistry or materials sciences. And there’s an enormous amount of data sitting inside companies. Companies may choose to use a more generic model and ground it with their corporate data.
Gao: Let me give you an example to illustrate what Mark is saying. One of our portfolio companies, MoveWorks, is an AI chatbot that cuts across enterprise applications like information technology, service management, and human resources, and adds company-specific data. If a customer has a conference room called Taylor Swift, for instance, and you ask a public chatbot if Taylor Swift is available at 9 a.m., the model is going to get confused. But if the chatbot is infused with information about the company’s conference-room names, it can produce an accurate answer.
Gil: The pattern of consumption is essential for how AI is used in the real world. So, you start with your base model, and then you load your records of, say, past customer exchanges and service documents around that—you’re fine-tuning the model so it incorporates your local data. Productivity gains are linked to that idea. Once you have base models for solving IT problems, all of a sudden your internal team can do 50 or 100 projects a year. In the era of just deep learning, having to label everything by hand, where every model was custom, you could do just four or five projects.
Solaiman: I always use the term “system” instead of model. But I’m so glad to hear all this talk about data. And when we’re thinking about system life cycles, there’s a lot of work, as Dario was saying, that goes into data collation, curation, and governance. An organization is going to train on an open data set that may have been collated and curated by somebody else.
This brings us to the question of why this is all happening now. We have much more impressive systems than we did just a few years ago. We have better techniques and better infrastructure, including more efficient computing, more computing, and more data. And we have better safety research, better fine-tuning of the information, and better accessibility, not just via APIs, but with models that are more compute-efficient, that can run even on local hardware.
In an interview with Barron’s after the latest Palantir [PLTR] earnings call, CEO Alex Karp said that this technological revolution favors the incumbents—unlike previous tech disruption that advantaged new companies. He thinks the winners will be familiar players, not new ones. Brook, you already touched on this idea. Cathy, as an investor in new companies, do you find that discouraging?
Gao: That’s the No. 1 question. Look, the incumbents have scale and capital. They have the computing resources, which are scarce these days. And they have tremendous data. They have key ingredients to be very, very successful around Gen AI. The incumbents are certainly going to be playing an outsize role in this era. I’m talking about hyperscalers, such as Google, Amazon.com [AMZN], Microsoft, and others, that are aggressively investing in this technology. On its latest call, Microsoft mentioned AI 59 times.
That’s even more times than the 53 times that Microsoft said the word “cloud.”
Gao: For an investor like me who is looking for the disrupters, the biggest question—and the biggest risk—when you look at most Gen AI application software companies is, what if Microsoft, or Google, or Adobe [ADBE] does this in the future? Is this new company going to be wiped out? The differentiators will be the same as with any software-as-a-service application. It will be about customer and product experience being deeply embedded into workflows, and that data moat that we talked about earlier.
A lot of the founders I’ve been speaking to over the past couple of months, when asked about Gen AI suddenly blowing up in the past two quarters, always say the same thing. They say, on the one hand, that it has been amazing for the market, with inbound queries just flooding in. But at the same time, it has lowered the barrier to entry for new players. Plus, the hyperscalers like Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, and Microsoft are now paying more attention to this opportunity.
Dane: I agree with everything Cathy just said. In every transition, new companies emerge, and some become large. But there really is a power of incumbency here, because of the need for data, and because you can develop these tools and techniques relatively quickly, the way Microsoft has announced AI software across its software stack. The incumbents do have a huge advantage. It’s going to come down to leadership and execution, as it always does, and especially in a time like this when the market has been through a period in which it has been focused on margin expansion. There’s a level of investment required to do this, and some of the incumbents are going to hesitate to spend what they need to spend to be relevant players. But the advantage starts with incumbency on this transition.
Mark, do you agree?
Moerdler: Yes, but let me add to that. AI is a data-driven learning experience. The more you have access to data, theoretically, the better your product becomes. And therefore, the quicker you can get to market, the more you can absorb in terms of information, the broader the reach—it has somewhat of a self-fulfilling prophecy effect. But as Brook rightly said, it comes down to execution, and there are many companies now that are giving lip service to generative AI rather than the significant focus and investment that may be necessary to create a moated solution.
Dane: As I think about my models and forecasts across the software ecosystem, the ones that execute well in this are going to see a lower churn rate, higher customer retention, and higher upsell and cross-sell into their installed base. You’re starting to see companies for which your degree of confidence in the two-, three-, four-year-out free-cash-flow outlook is structurally higher now. All of this is still super-early, and I’m not sure that it impacts the next 12 months’ cash flows in any material way. But as I think beyond that horizon, I get increased confidence in their ability to be bigger, stronger, faster businesses.
It seems clear that we’re not talking just about the importance of data held by tech companies. Legacy companies in areas such as financial services, pharmaceuticals, and materials have tons of data, too.
Gil: Understanding the moment as a shift in data representation is really important. It may sound a little bit abstract, but it is profound. When the relational database was invented, there was a form of data representation that we’re all accustomed to, of rows and columns. Databases were invented to do that well, transaction processing systems do that well, and it had huge implications for payroll and finance and accounting. Now, imagine instead a graphical data representation. It turns out that graphical representation is essential to do things like search, social media, and so on. You’re going to take the data that you have today, relational databases, graphs, and so on, and map them to this new way to encode information.
So, who gets to be a value creator? Enterprises and governments the world over have the most data. It looks at the moment like all of this is concentrated in about five American companies, but that isn’t how the future is going to evolve, because contrary to popular opinion, and thanks to open-source initiatives, the democratisation of AI is perhaps the most important force at present. Understanding how much simpler it will become to take advantage of these large language models, to adapt them, to create them, will turn out to be the defining trend as it gets internationalised and democratised, and value creation gets more distributed.
Solaiman: That’s one of the reasons I do this work. What we’re building has a lot of potential, but potential for whom? For instance, what are most keyboards optimised for? Latin character alphabets, like English. When I worked at OpenAI, I used to test a lot of the models, not just in English but also in the only non-Latin character language I understand, which is Bangla, the national language of Bangladesh. I got to see Bangla-speaking researchers working in a language deeply underrepresented in natural-language processing. When you make systems work for many different groups of people, opportunities open up. The question from a governance point of view is, how do we make sure data collection isn’t exploitative and appropriately represents every community.
That brings us to an important topic, which is regulation, and mitigating risks and potential harms. There are questions around job loss, intellectual property protection, and deep fakes. Congress has held hearings. Do we need a new regulator? New rules? And how do we do that without reducing the competitive position of U.S. companies relative to those in China or elsewhere?
Moerdler: We’re in a new era. Regulators don’t necessarily have the experience in this area. They are learning as the rest of us are learning exactly how to deal with it. Regulation, like everything, can be a two-edged sword. It can be used to limit bad actions. It could also limit development. There needs to be control to assure governance, privacy, and security, that the systems aren’t misused by bad actors. There needs to be some level of standardization of requirements, of control, and maybe even regulation. But it has to be done in a thoughtful way, or what will end up happening is that you will create an opportunity for companies outside the U.S. to take market share and take advantage.
Irene, what is your sense of this?
Solaiman: Good regulation is hard to do. Regulators wear so many hats. They can’t be experts in AI. But what they are experts in is the public interest. I want to learn from policy makers in which direction they think AI should be going. But it is immensely difficult to regulate. And what systems are we actually talking about? There’s not one single piece of legislation that is going to affect every aspect of AI. Regulators in the U.S., the European Union, the United Kingdom, and Canada are trying. There is an unprecedented level of attention in Congress. Hugging Face is pro regulation, but we want that to be in a way that guides innovation in the right direction. There needs to be better standards, but that means working together closely. There are incredible experts throughout all of these regulatory bodies on what that would look like and how that can be extrapolated to non generative AI systems, as well.
Gil: A framework of precision regulation would serve the industry well. Look at the work the EU did in the past few years. They developed a very thoughtful approach on use cases and risk-adjusted regulatory frameworks. There’s a huge difference between applying AI in a nuclear reactor and applying AI for a pizza-recommendation system. Right? And so risk-adjust, where you categorise how much harm this is likely to cause, or how much risk this is going to induce in society, and use the appropriate regulatory bodies to beef up the expertise.
Enable every agency to become an AI agency, an additional element that they incorporate. This is in contrast to having a single AI regulator that is going to figure out the whole thing. Regulating the technology itself, regulating mathematics, is a really bad idea. And there are people talking about registering the models—that’s the wrong way to go.
Focus on the use cases. Focus on the harm and the impact around that, and regulate using existing bodies against those by beefing up their AI knowledge and expertise and sophistication. Sometimes, the hyperbolic rhetoric that has come even from the tech industry is causing more harm than good. Lowering the tone and focusing around the harm and the damages and the impact, and on those regulatory bodies and the people who are doing that, would be the right way forward for precision regulation.
Cathy, how does the risk of added regulation affect your thinking about where to put Sapphire’s money?
Gao: It’s something we consider closely. We’re still in the very early innings—there are a lot of unknowns. Venture capital is a high-beta asset class by definition. But we want to be smart about the risks we take. When it comes to AI, many of the use cases we’re looking at right now are less likely to be a target of regulatory scrutiny. We’re not looking at companies that affect life or death, like in healthcare. Still, we’re following it very closely. We definitely take that into consideration, but we also accept that some of the unknowns will remain when we make an investment.
Moedler: These systems could be problematic from a privacy point of view, from a bias point of view, from an intellectual-property point of view. Investors need to think through where they could be exposed. It may not be regulators. It may be the fact that, you know what, you trained up these solutions, and the responses they’re giving impinge on other people’s IP, and therefore your clients—and you—are going to get sued. That becomes part of the math you need to do when determining whether these systems are going to become good, sustainable businesses that will generate not just revenue, but also profits, over a long period. Investors need to think carefully about where the exposure can be, whether they’re going to cross a line or create some legal, regulatory, or economic exposure.
One other risk that has been widely discussed is the potential that AI will cost people jobs. Is AI going to be a net job creator—or destroyer?
Gil: We have a couple of hundred years of evidence that the nature of jobs changes over time. A hundred years ago, half of the U.S. population was working in the fields. So, first of all, this phenomenon isn’t new. Whenever really disruptive technology emerges, people think this time will be different. The evidence suggests that won’t be the case. There’s a lot of good analysis that jobs are composed of many, many diverse tasks, and some will be subject to automation while many others won’t. The key metric that people are focused on is whether we can deliver on the productivity promise. With better productivity, we can generate more wealth, and invest in things we care deeply about to create better institutions, a better society, and so on.
I’m more worried about whether we can deliver solutions fast enough to reach the productivity gains we need, and discover solutions to the problems that we face. When I talk to people about advances in AI, semiconductors, and quantum computing, and they are stressed out about the rate of technological evolution, I like to say, look around. I don’t think we’ve run out of problems to solve. And if we can use these technologies to accelerate how quickly we can discover some of these solutions, we are all going to be very well served. One of my fears is definitely not that people won’t have jobs because of the advances in AI. History tells us that.
Solaiman: Just five years ago, one conversation was around how autonomous vehicles would replace drivers and cost the jobs of truck drivers and others. But it turns out, the most adversarial environment is the real world. I’d like to see more research on how we augment and not automate. What will be the impact on the wage distribution? Should people’s wages be reduced if they’re being helped by AI? There are important economic questions.
OK, we have to discuss the notion that generative AI is an existential threat to humanity, as some have warned. It’s worth mentioning here that there’s a difference between generative AI—what chatbots do—and artificial general intelligence, or AGI, the idea that software can be sentient and act on its own, like HAL in the movie 2001: A Space Odyssey.
Gil: I’m very opposed to that language of existential threats because it distorts things in a significant way. First of all, it freaks out our fellow citizens. To some degree, some of the people who espouse that language are behind the scenes aiming at regulatory capture.
Solaiman: A fun fact about me that’s not very public is that I worked on AGI for a while. When I was working on that, a lot of what I was thinking about through my research was, if we’re building these incredibly powerful systems, whose values do they represent? My primary motivator now is to make AI systems work better for underrepresented people in the technical world. A lot of the harms to marginalized people truly are existential to those communities.
But we’re not going to be serving robot masters soon, right?
Moerdler: The more immediate issue is how the AI is used and misused, not whether the AI itself is going to decide to cause damage. That’s the crux of the issue. Worry about how it’s going to be used or misused, because it’s a long time horizon before you have to worry about AI making decisions. People are trying, as Dario said, to blow this out of proportion for other purposes.
Let’s take a few minutes to talk about AI stocks. Brook, when we last talked a few months ago, you walked me through a bunch of non obvious ideas for AI investments. Are you still finding attractive things to buy, despite a big rally in the stocks?
Dane: First, as I’ve said, it’s very early. We’re in the emergence of this technology right now. The landscape is going to change dramatically over the next one, three, five years. Investors have to pay attention to how these things are changing and where opportunities emerge. The second thing is that, in general, there’s going to be considerable differentiation between winners and losers. Right now, the obvious plays are the ones getting revenue today, the picks-and-shovels players, semiconductor components, and networking, and then the big cloud vendors.
We’re at a funny moment, though, where the market has realised that there is going to be a boom in applications, and that there will be a bunch of infrastructure software that gets pulled along with this. There are exciting opportunities, but that isn’t going to move numbers for calendar-year 2023. So, as long as your investment horizon is long enough, you’re likely to see the payoff from this. If you’re trying to manage a portfolio from now to the end of the calendar year, the companies that are seeing the benefit are the very obvious choices that have already moved, like Nvidia and Microsoft and Alphabet.
When Microsoft reported June-quarter earnings a few weeks ago, the market’s reaction was a little tepid. The results didn’t really reflect all of the things they have been saying are coming on the AI front.
Dane: As we’ve moved through this latest earnings period, you saw a lot of companies produce results that have been ahead of expectations or right in line with expectations. Nobody has particularly gotten aggressive about raising guidance, and stocks have sold off into that, because they had large moves into the end of the quarter through June and July. People were expecting some excitement. The excitement is coming in a lot of these names, but just not in the next 90 days.
Microsoft seems incredibly well positioned from our perspective, given what the company is doing with Copilot and Azure. For us, that seems like a compelling opportunity.
Give us a couple of other picks.
Dane: I’m bullish on Marvell Technology [MRVL], which makes chips used in data-centre networking. It will grow right alongside Nvidia. Its AI-related business is around $200 million in revenue, and should double in each of the next couple of years. The stock has moved up, but so have estimates. This is a picks-and-shovels play, where the numbers are going higher.
Another company we like is Adobe, which dominates the creative software market. We’ve been hearing good things about the beta test for its corporate version of Firefly, Adobe’s collection of generative-AI tools. From what we hear from the sales channel, the beta version is doing exceptionally well. One of the biggest advantages that Adobe software offers is that customers will be protected from copyright infringement for their text-to-image software. There’s a little bit of TBD around how big this is—we still don’t have pricing information—but this is one of those situations where the incumbent has an advantage.
And what about Nvidia?
Dane: We have owned it and continue to own it in our large-cap and tech-focused funds. But we’re always managing risk and reward with position sizing; you want to make sure you stay in balance. As the leader in graphics processors, they are in a unique position—they are really benefiting from this wave. The business will do exceptionally well, but valuation has a range of outcomes.
Mark, you wrote a piece recently that asked if we are in an AI bubble. Are we?
Moerdler: We’ve been in an expectation or optimism bubble. The investor community has gotten enthusiastic about the near-term revenue that’s going to be generated by the technology. Again, this technology exploded on the market. Investors looked at it and went, OK, it’s going to generate meaningful revenue in a relatively short period. Expectations moved up, and valuations moved up accordingly. Many management teams started talking about their AI solutions. You could literally watch stock valuations move up the more they talked about AI, even though they weren’t giving you any guidance about when and how much. We’ve seen multiples move up to relatively high ranges, approaching what we’ve seen at peak multiples in recent times, without that line of sight to the revenue-generation possibility.
And so from that perspective, there is a bit of a bubble going on. It’s going to take longer than many people believe for AI to drive meaningful revenue. That doesn’t mean no revenue, but enough to move the needle from a revenue growth perspective or an earnings perspective. It is likely that in most cases, revenue is going to lead earnings here because there’s a lot of investment required to offer AI tools. You’re using them in the cloud. You’re paying for that usage, even if you own it yourself. You’re probably paying a premium right now, because of the GPU [graphics processing unit] shortage. And so, yes, we got a little bit ahead of our skis.
I also don’t think the rising tide will lift all ships equally. It’s going to come down to the companies that are able to create differentiated capabilities, protected against competitive threats—and that have the ability to monetise them. A lot of companies are going to add AI capabilities, and it is going to be, at least in the near term, a cost of doing business. It isn’t going to be monetisable because your competitors are going to add similar capabilities.
As Brook discussed, you need to think about the time horizon. We think of three buckets. There are the companies where you can see differentiation in what they’re offering now. There are companies that are adding AI, but it may just mean a higher cost of doing business, at least for the near term. Longer term, years from now, it could become real. And then there are the companies that will be disrupted. Most companies are in that middle bucket today.
Which companies would be in the first bucket? And the last?
Moerdler: Two of the companies that I put in the winners bucket were just mentioned by Brook—Microsoft and Adobe. I put in the losers list companies offering no-code and low-code software solutions; they are going to face new competition from AI-written code. For the losers, we see a combination of increased customer attrition and pricing pressure. Almost everything else is the middle bucket. For most companies, generative AI won’t be a major differentiator but will be necessary from a competitive positioning perspective. Most of these are jumping on the AI bandwagon, and while they should be able to get functionality to market quickly, it won’t be differentiated and, in many cases, really valuable to customers.
Dane: One thing to note: The opportunities in tech companies are compelling right now, with AI as an option in front of them. Business fundamentals are largely stable. The economy is in better shape than we all thought it would be six or nine months ago. These companies have largely pivoted to driving cash flow and operating income instead of chasing growth for growth’s sake. And then you have this optionality around AI.
Moerdler: Agreed. If your focus is on the value of the business, and the upside from AI, you’re going to get better a risk-reward in terms of your investment profile than if you jump on the all-about-AI ship, because it may just take longer until that revenue comes to fruition.
While tech stocks have had a big year, and everyone is talking about AI, there haven’t been any AI initial public offerings, or really any IPOs in tech. Cathy, what does that say about where we are in the development of the AI sector?
Gao: When the general IPO markets will unfreeze for tech is the million dollar question. I have no idea. In any case, it’s going to take a while before we see pure-play AI companies come public. The speed of adoption that we’re seeing in this cycle with AI has outstripped anything that I’ve seen in prior platform shifts. But maybe there’s something we can learn from the internet revolution that could be applied to the current era. In the internet era, the first wave of companies that came out weren’t the ones that ultimately succeeded. It was more the second wave and the third wave that watched their predecessors, learned from their mistakes, refined, rehoned, and went out. My gut is telling me that this is going to take a while.
Everyone, thanks for a fascinating conversation.
Chris Dixon, a partner who led the charge, says he has a ‘very long-term horizon’
Americans now think they need at least $1.25 million for retirement, a 20% increase from a year ago, according to a survey by Northwestern Mutual
In its quarterly report on the economic outlook, the OECD said it now expects global output to increase by 3.2% in 2024 and again in 2025
Falling interest rates and recovering real wages will help drive a slight pickup in global economic growth this year and next, while recent falls in oil prices could aid the final push to tame inflation, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said Wednesday.
However, the Paris-based research body warned that “comparatively benign” projections may not come to pass, with uncertainties remaining about how large an impact high interest rates will have on demand in the months ahead, while an escalation of the conflicts in the Middle East could push oil prices sharply higher.
In its quarterly report on the economic outlook, the OECD said it now expects global output to increase by 3.2% in 2024 and again in 2025, having grown by 3.1% last year. That was a slight upgrade from the 3.1% growth it forecast in May, and a sizable revision from the 2.7% expansion it expected to see when it published forecasts at the end of 2023.
The U.S. is largely responsible for that better performance, but India and Brazil are also growing more rapidly than expected, as is the U.K. By contrast, Germany and Japan have disappointed, with the former now forecast to hover on the brink of stagnation this year, and the latter to experience a small contraction.
However, despite the improved outlook for growth, and inflation rates that the OECD expects to fall to central-bank targets by the end of next year, consumer confidence has yet to pick up significantly, which would give a further boost to growth.
The OECD said that persistent dissatisfaction with economic performance, which is not limited to the U.S., is likely linked to the fact that food prices remain well above their pre-pandemic levels.
“There is a disconnect between how the economy is perceived and how the economy is doing,” said Alvaro Pereira , the OECD’s chief economist. “For people who go to the supermarket, food prices relative to wages are still higher.”
In the U.S., the gap between food-price and wage inflation between the end of 2019 and the second quarter of this year was roughly four percentage points. But that gap was much wider in large European economies, and above 15 percentage points in Germany. In South Africa, it was above 20 points.
The recent fall in oil prices may help offset some of that dissatisfaction, and boost a global fight to tame inflation that appears to be in its final stages. The OECD estimated that the 10% decline since July would knock half a percentage point off the global rate of inflation, if it were to be sustained. But it is far from certain that it will be.
“If the conflict in the Middle East escalates, this will have an impact on energy prices,” Pereira said.
Should escalation be avoided, the OECD said further falls in oil prices could allow for a faster reduction in central-bank interest rates than it currently expects, and boost growth in countries that don’t produce oil.
With inflation rates set to fall further, the OECD said central banks should lower their key interest rates, but in a manner that is “carefully judged” to ensure price rises continue to slow. It expects the Federal Reserve’s key rate to fall by a further 1.5 percentage points by the end of 2025, while the European Central Bank’s key rate is forecast to fall by 1.25 percentage points.
The Paris-based body said the interest-rate rises that central banks announced in 2022 and 2023 to counter a surge in inflation continue to weigh on growth, although with diminishing force.
But it noted that many households and businesses continue to see the interest rates they pay rise as their debts mature and they enter into new contracts. The OECD estimated that almost a third of rich-country corporate debt is due to mature in 2026, with new debt issued to replace it likely paying a higher rate of interest.
The OECD left its forecast for U.S. growth in 2024 unchanged at 2.6%, and also retained its 4.9% projection for China. Pereira said the package of stimulus measures announced by the Chinese government Tuesday could lead to a “slight” upward revision when the OECD next releases growth forecasts in early December.
Chris Dixon, a partner who led the charge, says he has a ‘very long-term horizon’
Americans now think they need at least $1.25 million for retirement, a 20% increase from a year ago, according to a survey by Northwestern Mutual
A 10% raise delivers a similar boost in satisfaction across income levels, research finds
A big raise provides significant boosts in happiness even at household incomes of $500,000, according to a new research report.
A wealth of research has long shown that more money makes a big difference to people with low pay, moving them from insecurity to stability. Above that level, the effect is often assumed to be much smaller.
But according to a paper by Matt Killingsworth , a senior fellow at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, the bonuses and leaps in income high earners reap are so large that they keep adding to well-being in the same way that smaller pay bumps do at lower tiers of earnings.
“I think of this as a ladder across society. The rungs are separated by more and more dollars, but exactly the same amount of happiness,” said Killingsworth, who published his report on his Happiness Science website.
An academic paper in 2010 popularised $75,000 as the salary threshold beyond which earning more money didn’t make people any happier. More recent research indicates that there is no such plateau.
Killingsworth and other researchers stress that many things influence human happiness, including your relationships, your job and the country you live in.
“No single factor, including money, dominates the equation,” Killingsworth said.
Previous studies on money and happiness have consistently demonstrated two things: that richer people are happier, and that it takes progressively more money to keep generating a well-being boost of a given size.
Killingsworth says that many people draw the wrong conclusion from that latter finding. They assume that money makes the biggest difference on Americans’ happiness at lower levels of income.
His paper suggests this assumption is wrong. That is because earnings surge exponentially across the income distribution, offsetting money’s diminishing returns on happiness even at the high end.
The lowest-earning 20% of U.S. households on average brought in about $23,000 before taxes in 2021, and the middle 20% earned about $87,000, according to the latest data from the Congressional Budget Office. The top 20% averaged roughly $418,000, with the very highest earners making significantly more than that.
“It could be entirely reasonable for an individual to continue aspiring to climb one more rung in the income ladder” to pursue happiness, Killingsworth writes in his paper.
Even Americans earning a lot of money wish they could do just that. Last year, survey respondents with incomes of $200,000 or more said that the median income they would need to be happy and less stressed was $350,000, according to data from the financial-services company Empower.
More money doesn’t guarantee more happiness. The side effects vary. Some who receive big raises later report big letdowns. Others who voluntarily take a pay cut say they are glad they did.
Chris Dixon, a partner who led the charge, says he has a ‘very long-term horizon’
Interior designer Thomas Hamel on where it goes wrong in so many homes.
Some designer handbags like the Hermès Kelly have implied power. But can a purse alone really get you a restaurant table—or even a job?
LIKE MARVEL VILLAINS, most fashion writers have origin stories. Mine began with a navy nylon Prada purse, salvaged from a Boston thrift store when I was a teen in the 1990s. Scuffed with black streaks and sagging, it was terribly beat-up. But I saw it as a golden ticket to a future, chicer self. No longer a screechy suburban theatre kid, I would revamp myself as sophisticated, arch, even aloof. The bag, I reasoned, would lead the way.
That fall, I slung it against my shoulder like a shotgun and marched into school, where a girl far more interesting than I was called out, “Hey, cool bag.” After feigning apathy —“I don’t know, you could use a Sharpie on a lunch bag and it would look the same”—we became friends. She introduced me to a former classmate who worked at a magazine. That woman helped me get an internship, which led to a job.
Twenty years later, I still wonder how big of a role that Prada purse played in my future—and whether designer bags can function as a silent partner in our success. Branded luxury bags took off in 1957, when Grace Kelly posed with an Hermès bag in Life magazine. (Hermès renamed that bag “the Kelly” in 1973.) The term “status bag” was popularised in 1990 by Gaile Robinson in the Los Angeles Times, describing any purse that projects social or economic power. Not surprisingly, these accessories are costly. Kelly bags cost over $10,000; ditto Chanel’s 11.22 handbag. Some bags by Louis Vuitton and Dior command similar price points. The cost isn’t repelling customers—both brands reported revenue surges in 2023. But isn’t there something dusty about the idea that a branded bag carries meaning along with your phone and wallet? How much status can a status bag deliver in 2024?
Quite a lot, said Daniel Langer, a business professor at Pepperdine University and the CEO of Équité, a Swiss luxury consulting firm. Beginning in 2007, Langer showed a series of photo portraits to hundreds of people across Europe, Asia and the U.S., then asked them 60 questions. Those pictured carrying a luxury handbag were seen as “more attractive, more intelligent, more interesting,” he said. The conclusion was “so ridiculous” to Langer that he repeated the studies several times over the next decade and a half. The results were always the same: “Purchasing a ‘status bag’ will prepare you to be more successful in your social actions. That is the data.”
Intrigued, I gathered various Very Important Purses—I borrowed some from friends, and others from brands—to see if they could elevate my station with the same unspoken oomph as a “Pride and Prejudice” suitor.
First, I took Alaïa’s Le Teckel bag—a narrow purse resembling an elegant flute case and carried by actress Margot Robbie—to New York’s Carlyle Hotel on a Saturday night. The line for the famous Bemelmans Bar stretched to the fire exit. “Can I get a table right away?” I asked the host, holding out my bag like a passport before an international flight. “It’s very busy,” he said in hushed tones. “But come sit. A table should open soon.” I sank into one of the Carlyle’s lush red sofas and sipped a martini while waiting—a much nicer way to kill 30 minutes than slumped against a lobby wall.
Wondering if this was a one-time thing, I called up Desta, the mononymous “culture director” (read: gatekeeper) who has worked for Manhattan celebrity hide-outs like Chapel Bar and Boom, the Standard Hotel bar that hosts the Met Gala’s official after party. “Sure, we pay attention to bags,” he said. “Not too long ago at Veronika,” the Park Avenue restaurant where Desta also steered the social ship, “we had one table left. A woman had a Saint Laurent bag from the Hedi Era,” he said, referencing Hedi Slimane , the brand’s revered designer from 2012 to 2016. “I said, ‘Give her the table. She appreciates style. She’ll appreciate this place.’”
Some say a status bag can open professional doors, too. Cleo Capital founder Sarah Kunst, who lives between San Francisco and London, notes that in private-equity circles, these accessories can act as a quick head-nod in introductory situations. Kunst says that especially as a Black woman, she found a designer bag to be “almost like armour” at the beginning of her career. “You put it on, and if you’re walking into a work event or a happy hour where you need to network, it can help you fit in immediately.” She cites Chanel flap bags made from the brand’s signature quilted leather and stamped with a double-C logo as an industry favourite. “People love to talk about them. They’ll say, ‘Ohhh, I love your bag,’ in a low voice.” They talk to you, said Kunst, “like you’re a tiger.”
For high-stakes jobs that rely on commissions—sports agents or sales reps, for instance—a fancy handbag can help establish credibility. “It says, ‘I’m succeeding at my job,’” said Mary Bonnet, vice president of the Oppenheim Group, the California real-estate firm at the centre of Netflix reality show “Selling Sunset.” As a new real-estate agent in her 20s, Bonnet brought a fake designer bag to a meeting. To her horror, a potential buyer had the real thing. “I work in an industry where trust is important, and there I was being inauthentic. That was a real lesson.” Now Bonnet rotates several (real) Saint Laurent and Chanel bags, but notes that a super-expensive purse could alienate some clients. “I don’t think I’d walk into [some client homes] with a giant Hermès bag.”
Hermès bags are supposedly the apex predator of purses. But I didn’t feel invincible when I strapped a Kelly bag around my chest like a pebbled-leather ammo belt. The dun-brown purse cost $11,800, a sum that prompted my boyfriend to ask if I needed a bodyguard. Shaking with “is this insured?” anxiety, I walked into a showing for an $8.5 million apartment steps from Central Park. I made it through the door but was soon stopped by a gruff real-estate agent asking if I had an appointment. No, but I had an Hermès bag? Alas, it wasn’t enough. The gleaming black door closed in my face.
“What went wrong?” I asked Dafna Goor, a London Business School professor who studies the psychology behind luxury purchases. “You felt nervous,” she replied. “That always makes others uncomfortable, especially in a high stakes situation,” like an open house with jittery agents. Goor said recognisable bags from Louis Vuitton and Christian Dior are also often faked, which can lead to suspicion if not paired with “other signals of wealth.”
“You can’t just treat a bag as a backstage pass,” said Jess Graves, who runs the shopping Substack the Love List. Graves says bags are more of a secret code shared between potential connections. “I’ve been in line for coffee and a woman will see my Margaux [from the Row] and go, ‘Oh, I know that bag.’ Then we’ll chat.” Graves moved from Atlanta to Manhattan in 2023, and says she’s made some new, local friends thanks to these “bag chats.”
I had my own bag chat that night, when I brought Khaite’s Olivia—a slim crescent of shiny maroon leather—to a house party thrown by a rock star I’d never met. In fact I knew hardly any guests, but as I stood in the kitchen, a woman in vintage Chanel pointed to my bag and asked, “How did you get that colour? It’s sold out!” Before I could tell her my name, she told me the make and model of my purse. Then she laughed about her ex-boss, a tech billionaire, and encouraged me to buy some cryptocurrency. The token I picked surged nearly 30% in about a week. Now I was onto something—a status bag that might bring not just status, but an actual market return.
Thanks to their prominence on social media, certain bags have gained favour among Gen Zers. “TikTok and Instagram make some luxury items even more visible and more desirable to young people,” said Goor. I experienced this firsthand on a stormy Saturday morning, when a girl in a college hoodie pointed at my Miu Miu Wander bag as I puddle-hopped through downtown New York. The piglet-pink purse is a TikTok favourite seen on young stars like Sydney Sweeney and Hailey Bieber. “Your bag is everything!” yelled the girl from the crosswalk. “Thanks, can I have your umbrella?” I shouted back. She laughed and left. My Wander had made a splash—but it couldn’t keep me dry. I ran to the subway, soaked. The bag looked even better wet.
Changing the Status Bag Quo
Everyone loves an ingénue—fashion insiders included. Perhaps that’s why at Paris Fashion Week in September, newer handbags from Bottega Veneta and Loewe jostled for space and street-style flashbulbs.
“These bags, especially ones by independent labels like Khaite, are quieter signals of cultural access,” explained Goor. “Everyone knows what an Hermès Kelly bag is. So now there need to be new signals” beyond traditional status bags to convey power.
Sasha Bikoff Cooper, a Manhattan interior designer, says there’s a less cynical explanation for why these bags have captured celebrity fans—and more important, paying customers. “They’re fresh and also beautiful,” she said. “Hermès is always classic. It’s like a first love. But you want newness, too.”
The Wall Street Journal is not compensated by retailers listed in its articles as outlets for products. Listed retailers frequently are not the sole retail outlets.
Chris Dixon, a partner who led the charge, says he has a ‘very long-term horizon’
Following the devastation of recent flooding, experts are urging government intervention to drive the cessation of building in areas at risk.
Saudi Arabia also led G20 nations in international tourist arrivals and growth rate.
The Ministry of Tourism announced that Saudi Arabia saw an 8.2 percent increase in inbound visitor spending, reaching approximately SR92.6 billion in the first half of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. Additionally, the Kingdom recorded a travel account surplus of around SR41.6 billion.
The rise in spending by international visitors highlights the significant advancements within Saudi Arabia’s tourism sector.
The ministry also cited data from UN Tourism, which showed that Saudi Arabia led G20 nations in both international tourist arrivals and the growth rate of tourism receipts during the first seven months of 2024, compared to the same period in 2019.
These achievements reflect the success of the Kingdom’s tourism ecosystem in positioning the sector as a global leader, thanks to the adoption of best practices, improvements in tourism services and products, and strong collaboration with government bodies.
The statement emphasized that these efforts continue to strengthen the tourism sector’s contribution to the Kingdom’s economic growth and global standing.
Chris Dixon, a partner who led the charge, says he has a ‘very long-term horizon’
This collaboration positions American Express as one of Telr’s aggregation payment service providers in the MENA region.
American Express Middle East has entered into a partnership with the online payment gateway, Telr, to broaden its acceptance across Telr’s merchant network. This collaboration positions American Express as one of Telr’s aggregation payment service providers in the MENA region.
As a result of this agreement, American Express Card Members will be able to use their cards at thousands of Telr’s online merchants, significantly increasing the number of locations where their cards are accepted. Merchants working with Telr for American Express acceptance will now have the opportunity to attract customers globally, including from the Middle East and beyond.
These merchants will also benefit from Telr’s versatile payment gateway, offering transactions in over 120 currencies and supporting 30 languages through various payment methods, including pay-by-link services.
Commenting on the agreement, Graziela Martins, Vice President Merchant Business of American Express Middle East, said: “We are proud to sign the partnership with Telr to expand our merchant acceptance network and enable our Card Members to use their Cards more and more for everyday spend. At American Express, we’re proud to see more businesses accepting American Express in the Middle East region and globally.”
Khalil Alami, Founder & CEO of Telr, said: “Our agreement with Amex enables our merchants to increase their global market reach, connecting with millions of consumers and businesses worldwide. Becoming American Express Middle East’s first aggregation payment service provider in the MENA region is a great honor and will enable us to offer swift onboarding with just a click of a button.”
Alami added, “At Telr, we’re dedicated to providing merchants with top-notch technology and the best payment methods to boost their competitiveness and simplify online shopping for customers.”
Globally, American Express has tripled the number of accepting merchants since 2017, with more than 89 million locations worldwide.
Chris Dixon, a partner who led the charge, says he has a ‘very long-term horizon’
This initiative aligns with the goals of Saudi Vision 2030.
Amaar Holding Company has announced the start of a strategic alliance with Maheshwari, an Indian company recognized as a leader in the mining sector. The purpose of this partnership is to form a new company specializing in mining and providing advanced geological and mining services in Saudi Arabia. This initiative aligns with the goals of Saudi Vision 2030.
In a statement, Abdulhadi bin Fahd Al-Qahtani, Chairman of Amaar Holding Company, confirmed that this alliance will contribute to developing the mining sector and achieving the goals of Vision 2030. He said: “Through our local expertise and the capabilities of our Indian partner, our company, which specializes in mining services, will provide high-quality services that meet market needs and support the sustainable development process.”
Al-Qahtani added: “This alliance comes within the framework of our continuous efforts to expand into new markets, seize promising investment opportunities, benefit from the natural resources in the Kingdom, and contribute to building a promising future.”
He continued: “Through our mining services company, we aspire to be at the forefront of geological and mining services companies in the Kingdom by 2030 through adhering to the highest quality, safety, and sustainability standards.”
Notably, the Kingdom’s Vision 2030 aims to increase the mining sector’s contribution to the GDP from $17 billion in 2019 to $75 billion by 2030 through increasing exploration and infrastructure investments and attracting the private sector.
Chris Dixon, a partner who led the charge, says he has a ‘very long-term horizon’
Of the total shares on offer, 60% will be allocated to institutional investors in Oman and international, while 40% will be available to individual investors.
The Oman Investment Authority (OIA), Oman’s sovereign wealth fund, has announced the Initial Public Offering (IPO) of 25% of the shares in OQ Exploration & Production, a subsidiary of the OQ Group, which is fully owned by OIA. This IPO is set to become the largest ever on the Muscat Stock Exchange.
Of the shares offered, 60% will be allocated to institutional investors, both in Oman and internationally, while 40% will be available to individual investors.
This Shariah-compliant IPO is part of OIA’s broader divestment strategy, first announced in mid-2022. Since then, OIA has raised over USD 2.5 billion by divesting from 12 investments between 2022 and 2023. These divestments included nine private placements across various sectors and three IPOs on the Muscat Stock Exchange, namely The Pearl REIF, Abraj Energy Services, and OQ Gas Networks, all of which saw significant oversubscription, demonstrating strong investor confidence.
OIA’s approach focuses on divesting from a select number of its subsidiaries and converting them into public joint-stock companies or selling equity in these subsidiaries directly to strategic investors. This strategy aims to stimulate Oman’s economy and invigorate the Muscat Stock Exchange, thereby elevating Oman to emerging market status. By listing government-owned assets publicly, OIA seeks to enhance governance, transparency, and adoption of global best practices. This policy is integral to Oman’s economic diversification efforts and aims to empower the private sector to play a leading role in driving the economy. Additionally, it creates profitable investment opportunities for citizens and residents as well as attracting high-quality foreign investments.
Constantly evolving in response to global economic shifts with the aim to establish a robust institutional framework, OIA has updated its divestment strategy for the next five years, covering 2025 to 2029. OIA has also established steering committees within its subsidiaries to ensure efficient management of divestment operations. The plan includes approximately 30 investments that will be divested either through public offerings in sectors such as energy, logistics, utilities, and infrastructure or through direct sales to strategic investors in sectors including aquaculture, agriculture, and mining.
With investments spanning more than 30 countries, OIA aims to remain at the forefront of the rapidly changing global economic landscape to bolster the national economy and elevate Oman’s global competitiveness. By adopting forward-thinking economic policies, OIA is opening new investment opportunities aligned with Oman’s Vision 2040, which seeks to enhance economic diversification, attract foreign direct investments, and foster partnerships with local enterprises to drive greater sustainable economic prosperity for the Sultanate of Oman.
Chris Dixon, a partner who led the charge, says he has a ‘very long-term horizon’
Industry-first move opens door to UAE equity markets for investors worldwide.
Scope Markets, the brand used by a globally regulated group of brokers, has today announced the launch of two new CFD products for trading indices in both Dubai and Abu Dhabi. In what is seen as being an industry-first, Scope Markets clients can now access unique instruments – the AD15 for Abu Dhabi and the DXBI for Dubai – with prices reflecting movements in the respective underlying regional stock markets, via a single transaction and from almost anywhere in the world.
Pavel Spirin, Chief Executive Officer at Scope Markets, commented: “We are genuinely excited to be offering clients the ability to gain exposure to both the Dubai and Abu Dhabi equity indices via a CFD. It’s no secret that the GCC economies are growing rapidly, fueled in part by more companies listing on the relevant regional markets. We know that investors from across the world want an easy way to add UAE exposure to their portfolios – these new products deliver that reality.”
Whilst many other global equity markets struggled over the summer – the Dow 30 added around 5% from the start of June to the end of August and the FTSE-100 was little changed – the Abu Dhabi benchmark index grew by 10% whilst the Dubai equivalent saw its value grow by more than 15%. The price action here, along with the frequent oversubscription of new equity offers in the region – in March 2024 the Parkin IPO was 165 times oversubscribed – underlines how demand for quality investments in the region continues to outstrip supply.
Mitesh Vaghela, Chief Business Officer at Scope Markets, added: “At Scope Markets we have now developed these proprietary instruments which we believe provide a genuine market differentiator for us as a brokerage. We know the demand for investing in both Dubai and Abu Dhabi is there so we will use feedback from these products to see how we can further refine the offering and look at expanding the product suite to allow access into other exchanges across the GCC.”
Growth data from exchange operator Dubai Financial Market (DFM) noted that in 2023, foreign investors accounted for 47% of trading activity, whilst 73% of new investors were from overseas.
The new equity index products will be available for Scope Markets clients to trade on both a long and short basis, with leverage of up to 1:20 offered. These instruments complement the addition of more than 80 Abu Dhabi and Dubai listed single equity CFDs which have been added to the broker’s tradable universe over the last twelve months.
Chris Dixon, a partner who led the charge, says he has a ‘very long-term horizon’
The partnership is a significant step forward to achieve a sustainable future
In a strategic step towards achieving its sustainability goals, Gargash Group has partnered with Mashreq. This collaboration, officially inaugurated with an MoU signing ceremony at the Mercedes-Benz Brand Center in Dubai Design District, was crystalized with their debut Green Loan that was extended earlier for a number of projects across Gargash Group. The two institutions are also in discussion on future ESG integration initiatives for the Group, including but not limited to other Sustainability-Linked facilities.
By obtaining its first Green Loan, Gargash Group aligns itself with a prestigious and select group of UAE enterprises that have leveraged impactful and sustainable financing solutions. The partnership aims to promote and advance robust sustainability agendas for both Gargash Group and Mashreq by setting and achieving ambitious sustainability targets.
As a tangible expression of these goals, Gargash Group is planning solar installations across 25 sites in the next three years, with an energy potential totaling over 5 MW. While 5 sites are expected to be completed as early as 2025, plans are also underway to execute energy efficiency projects spanning across 25 of its sites. Finance requirements for these plans are to be covered through the Green Loan facility from Mashreq.
Walid Hizaoui, Group Chief Strategy Officer at Gargash Group, shared his insights at the event, stating, “This partnership marks a critical milestone in our sustainability journey. With a reliable and trusted banking partner supporting us, we are wholeheartedly committed to integrating sustainability practices into every aspect of our operations for a greener future. We have meticulously scoped our businesses and implemented the necessary infrastructure to monitor our progress towards decarbonization—our ultimate long-term goal. This initiative not only underscores our unwavering commitment to reducing the nation’s carbon footprint but also aligns with the UAE Green Agenda 2030 and UAE Net Zero Strategy 2050, promoting sustainable practices across the board.”
Thomas Schulz, General Manager Mercedes-Benz Passenger Cars at Gargash Enterprises, added, “This is an important milestone that will help drive the Mercedes-Benz brand forward, a brand long rooted in values of innovation and sustainability. This collaboration is a main catalyst fueling our commitment to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2030 in the UAE. Our commitment to this objective reflects our dedication to the brand and our responsibility to the UAE, as we push forward in sustainable mobility. With a solid framework in place, we are confident our efforts will drive meaningful progress towards a greener future.”
Karim Amer, Head of Automotive Sector at Mashreq, commented, “Mashreq is proud to support Gargash Group’s transition towards a sustainable future through their inaugural Green Loan and other potential Sustainability-Linked facilities. This financing is designed to enable remarkable reductions in emissions and accelerate decarbonization initiatives which we have been actively driving across the Automotive sector, through proactive engagement with our clients on both formulization as well as execution of their Sustainability Strategies. By aligning financial incentives with sustainability objectives, we aim to enhance operational efficiencies for our partners and set a benchmark that encourages other organizations to integrate energy efficiency and sustainability into their core strategies.”
The partnership between Gargash Group and Mashreq is a significant step forward in the collective effort to achieve a sustainable future and it also demonstrates their commitment to a more responsible and environmentally conscious business landscape.
Chris Dixon, a partner who led the charge, says he has a ‘very long-term horizon’
S&P expects Oman’s budget to generate financial surpluses of 1.9% during 2024-2027
Standard & Poor’s (S&P) has raised Oman’s credit rating to ‘BBB-‘ from ‘BB+’, with a stable outlook, citing improvements in the country’s financial performance. This upgrade marks Oman’s return to investment-grade status after nearly seven years, following a downgrade due to the global drop in oil prices and the impact of COVID-19.
S&P emphasized that the upgrade reflects Oman’s sustained efforts to strengthen its public finances through financial and economic reforms, as well as government restructuring. These initiatives have restored the balance between revenue and public spending, as detailed in the medium-term financial plan, resulting in financial surpluses. Furthermore, the government’s focus on reducing public debt, improving governance of state-owned enterprises, and lowering debt levels contributed to the positive outlook.
Higher oil prices and the financial measures taken have strengthened Oman’s fiscal position, providing flexibility to manage external shocks. S&P expects Oman’s budget to generate financial surpluses of 1.9% during 2024-2027, assuming Brent crude prices average $80 per barrel from 2025 to 2027. This would allow the government to continue reducing public debt and building financial reserves. Oman’s real GDP is projected to grow by 2% annually, with increased oil production stimulating non-oil sector growth by about 2% per year. The current account is expected to maintain surpluses, averaging 1.2% of GDP during 2024-2027.
S&P emphasized Oman’s commitment to reducing public debt, predicting it will reach 29% of GDP by 2027, indicating that liquid assets would remain around 36% of GDP until that year.
Inflation is expected to stay moderate, averaging 1.4% annually during 2024-2027, following a low of 0.9% in 2023. Credit to the private sector expanded by 4.9% in 2023, and lending is projected to grow by 5%-6% annually, supported by favorable credit conditions.
S&P noted that government efforts to manage state-owned enterprises since 2020 have improved governance, operational efficiency, and financial performance, with increased profitability and reduced debt levels. Establishing Oman Energy Development Company (EDO) and Integrated Gas Company (IGC) has also enhanced government financial accounts by reflecting net revenues after oil and gas sector expenses.
Oman’s credit rating could improve further over the next two years if the government continues managing public finances as planned, increasing non-oil revenues and improving public expenditure efficiency. These measures would support GDP growth, driven by ongoing momentum in non-oil sectors and continued efforts to promote economic diversification and capital market development.
Sultan bin Salim Al Habsi, Oman’s Minister of Finance, stated that the upgraded rating reflects the government’s commitment to fiscal balance and financial sustainability. This rating enhances confidence in Oman’s economy and investment appeal, following positive results from financial reforms, including the Public Debt Law, which strengthened governance and improved the investment environment.
The Minister added that the government remains committed to strengthening public finance indicators and utilizing financial surpluses to promote economic and social prosperity. These achievements result from collaboration between government units, private sector partners, and civil society institutions.
Chris Dixon, a partner who led the charge, says he has a ‘very long-term horizon’
This growth is primarily driven by the ongoing expansion of non-oil sectors
The Statistics Centre Abu Dhabi (SCAD) has released preliminary estimates showing a 4.1% growth in the emirate’s GDP for the second quarter of 2024 compared to the same period last year.
This growth is primarily driven by the ongoing expansion of non-oil sectors, highlighting the success of Abu Dhabi’s economic diversification initiatives.
According to the report, Abu Dhabi’s GDP in Q2 2024 reached a new high, exceeding AED 297 billion, reflecting the emirate’s continued economic strength. This growth also bolstered the non-oil economy by 5.7% in the first half of 2024, resulting in an overall economic growth of 3.7% compared to the first half of 2023.
Non-oil activities in Abu Dhabi saw steady progress, with non-oil GDP rising by 6.6% in Q2 2024, reaching a record AED 164.2 billion. This pushed the non-oil sector’s share to more than 55.2% of the total economy, its highest level since late 2014.
Ahmed Jasim Al Zaabi, Chairman of the Abu Dhabi Department of Economic Development (ADDED), said, “The continued strong performance of our economy over the past years is a testament to its resilience and agility in responding positively and timely to mega shifts in the global economy as we are accelerating the transition to diversified, smart, and sustainable economy. Our economic diversification efforts have positioned Abu Dhabi as a rising economic powerhouse and a global magnet for talents, businesses, and quality domestic and foreign investments.
“Our initiatives to further enhance a vibrant, globally competitive, and entrepreneurial ecosystem to generate opportunities for all, enabling them to reach their full potential are delivering outstanding results. As we move to the next phase of development, our soaring ‘Falcon Economy’ is leveraging advanced technologies to accelerate the economic growth, while placing human development and sustainability at the core of our initiatives.”
Abdulla Gharib Alqemzi, Director-General of SCAD, said, “The statistical estimates of Abu Dhabi’s GDP for Q2 2024 reflects a remarkable progress, with significant contributions from key sectors such as manufacturing, construction, and finance. These sectors achieved their highest quarterly values, pushing non-oil GDP to a record AED164.2 billion, a substantial rise from AED154 billion in the same period last year. This performance showcases the resilience of Abu Dhabi’s economy in adapting to global challenges, reinforcing the emirate’s attractiveness as a hub for sustainable investment.”
According to the estimates, construction activities grew by 11.5% in Q2 2024 compared to the same quarter last year, reaching a record AED 27.5 billion. The sector’s contribution to GDP rose to 9.3%, the highest since 2015.
Manufacturing activities increased by 2.6% in Q2 2024 compared to the same period last year, with a quarterly value of AED 26.8 billion, representing 9% of the emirate’s GDP.
The finance and insurance sector experienced an impressive 13.4% growth in Q2 2024 compared to Q2 2023, contributing 7.4% to GDP, with its value hitting a record AED 22 billion, further solidifying Abu Dhabi’s global investment competitiveness.
The wholesale and retail trade sector grew by 3.3% in Q2 2024 compared to Q2 2023, contributing 5.5% to GDP and reaching a value of AED 16 billion.
Transportation and storage grew by 15.2%, and real estate activities increased by 5.5%, reaching AED 7 billion and AED 10 billion, respectively, and contributing 2.4% and 3.4% to GDP in Q2 2024.
The information and communication sector posted a record value of AED 8.5 billion, growing by 4.4% in Q2 2024 compared to the previous year, contributing 2.8% to the emirate’s total GDP during that period, underscoring the sector’s importance to Abu Dhabi’s future growth.
Abu Dhabi’s non-oil economy has shown remarkable growth in recent periods, with a 4.7% quarterly rise in Q1 2024 and a 9.1% annual increase in 2023, driven by the strong performance of sectors like industry, finance, and construction.
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EDB and Redington will equip enterprises to meet these needs with solutions that streamline transactional, analytical, and AI workloads.
EDB partners with Redington to accelerate digital transformation and ensuring data sovereignty across the Middle East and Africa (MEA). As AI adoption accelerates in the region, this collaboration will enable enterprises to harness AI while maintaining control over their data in accordance with local regulations.
The MEA region is experiencing rapid technological advancements, with a growing focus on open-source technologies to drive growth and transformation. AI spending in the region is expected to grow at an annual rate of 37%, reaching $7.2 billion by 2026, increasing the demand for secure and scalable data platforms. Through their partnership, EDB and Redington will provide enterprises with solutions that streamline transactional, analytical, and AI workloads while ensuring compliance in highly regulated industries.
At GITEX Global 2024, EDB will present EDB® Postgres® AI, a unified platform designed to optimize transactional, analytical, and AI performance. This platform enables organizations to achieve high availability, enhance security, and address the challenges of hybrid and multi-cloud environments, all while complying with regional data regulations.
“Organizations need to develop, consume, and operationalize their AI and data for their own platforms, wherever, however, and whenever they want,” said Stew Hale, Global Director of Channel Sales at EDB. “As open-source demands rise, our partnership with Redington brings Postgres to more MEA businesses, helping them harness their data’s full potential while keeping it secure and sovereign.”
Kash Rafique, Vice President of Sales, Middle East and Africa at EDB, added, “This partnership goes beyond technology it’s about empowering organizations to grow and thrive in an increasingly complex and competitive AI landscape. By aligning our expertise with Redington’s reach, we’re addressing the critical need for flexible, compliant, and future-proof data solutions.”
Redington, as a key EDB distributor in the region, will enable enterprises to modernize their infrastructures and deliver AI and data solutions that are purpose-built for MEA’s unique regulatory landscape. This partnership underscores the growing role of open-source technology in driving innovation while maintaining the highest levels of data control.
“Businesses in the Middle East and Africa need innovative solutions that are both powerful and secure. Our partnership with EDB is a strategic move to address this demand by leveraging AI and data sovereignty, empowering organizations to harness technology without compromising privacy or compliance,” said Dharshana Kosgalage, Executive Vice President, Technology Solutions Group at Redington MEA. “At Redington, we’re on a mission to close the gap between the rate of innovation and the rate of adoption by delivering a comprehensive suite of solutions that enable businesses to innovate at scale, optimize their operations, and stay ahead of the competition.”
EDB’s commitment to the region reflects its deep understanding of MEA’s digital transformation goals. As the region continues to prioritize open-source solutions, the EDB Postgres AI platform is uniquely positioned to meet these demands by providing enterprises with the flexibility, scalability, and security needed to succeed in the AI-driven economy.
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The partnership will leverage the extensive network of Widect, a Turkish Airline brand, and AJEX last-mile expertise for efficient and reliable shipping solutions
AJEX Logistics Services (AJEX), a leading Middle East-based specialist in express distribution and shipping solutions, is pleased to announce a new strategic partnership with prominent logistics brand Widect, a 100% subsidiary of Turkish Airlines and highly valued partner in e-commerce space. This agreement aims to expand shipping solutions on the Turkiye-(formerly Turkey)–to-Middle East route and enhance last-mile delivery services for the growing e-commerce sector across MENA.
As a 100% subsidiary of Turkish Airlines, Widect operations integrate the extensive flight network of Turkish Airlines, providing access to 340 destinations worldwide. Thanks to this latest collaboration, AJEX customers will benefit from daily flights between Istanbul and Riyadh, Jeddah, and Dammam, enhancing the speed of services including last-mile deliveries.
Meanwhile, AJEX will provide its last-mile expertise, including a robust fleet, infrastructure, and distribution services, alongside customer service excellence, all supported by state-of-the-art technology for fast and flexible deliveries. Together, the partners will leverage their combined capabilities to develop joint projects that expand service offerings and improve operational efficiencies for e-commerce businesses serving the MENA region.
Trade between Turkiye and Saudi Arabia is on the rise, with both countries serving as major aviation hubs in the region. Direct flights between Istanbul and Riyadh typically take around three to four hours, facilitating efficient business and trade connections. In 2021, Turkish exports to Saudi Arabia reached approximately USD 3 billion, while the trade volume between the two countries rose to USD 8.2 billion in 2022. This upward trend is expected to continue, highlighting the strengthening economic ties between the nations.
The growing e-commerce markets in both countries create ample opportunities for collaboration, as Turkish products gain traction in Saudi Arabia and vice versa. AJEX is well-positioned to support businesses with its comprehensive suite of customer-centric solutions in reaching these key markets, leveraging its expertise in the express and e-commerce categories to facilitate efficient trade flows.
“United by a commitment to delivering superior logistics solutions based on speed, reliability, and agility, AJEX is delighted to announce our new partnership with Widect,” said Mohammed Albayati, CEO of AJEX Logistics Services.
“Together, we will facilitate smoother and more efficient trade flows between Turkiye and the Middle East, empowering businesses to thrive in our dynamic markets, and underscoring Saudi Arabia’s position as a key player in the logistics landscape,” he added.
“At Widect, we are collaborating with AJEX to leverage our shared resources and expertise to deliver cutting-edge products that can drive the industry forward. As e-commerce continues to boom and bilateral trade grows, we look forward to our continued partnership to deliver enhanced services and ever greater value to businesses across the region,” Mr. Enes Yilmaz, Managing Director of Widect added.
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The statement highlighted the government’s commitment to increasing strategic transformational spending aimed at achieving economic diversification
The Saudi Ministry of Finance announced the release of the Pre-Budget Statement for Fiscal Year 2025, projecting total expenditures of SR 1,285 billion and total revenues of SR 1,184 billion, resulting in a budget deficit of SR 101 billion, or 2.3% of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
The statement highlighted the government’s commitment to increasing strategic transformational spending aimed at achieving economic diversification and sustainable growth. It estimated total revenues for 2025 at SR 1,184 billion, with expectations that they will rise to SR 1,289 billion by 2027. Meanwhile, total expenditures are projected to increase from SR 1,285 billion in 2025 to SR 1,429 billion by 2027.
In light of Saudi Arabia’s economic developments and the implementation of various financial and economic initiatives, as well as fiscal policies aimed at promoting budgetary stability and sustainability for FY 2025, the ministry emphasized the importance of these measures.
The ministry also pointed out that the reported GDP growth was driven by the expansion of non-oil sectors, which has fostered the growth of key industries such as tourism, entertainment, transportation, logistics, and manufacturing. This growth has led to an improved quality of life, greater private sector empowerment, and a historic reduction in unemployment.
These developments have positively influenced international organizations and credit rating agencies’ forecasts for Saudi Arabia’s economic performance. The statement also highlighted projections for 2024, which include an anticipated real GDP growth of 0.8%, supported by a 3.7% increase in non-oil activities. A recent reduction in interest rates is expected to boost demand and further stimulate economic growth. Additionally, inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, is forecasted to reach approximately 1.7% by the end of 2024.
Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan reaffirmed the government’s commitment to targeted spending on essential services for citizens and residents, alongside strategic projects that promote economic growth and sustainable development. He noted that Saudi Arabia is expected to see positive growth rates in 2025 and over the medium term, as ongoing reforms and initiatives under Saudi Vision 2030 continue to diversify the economy, expand the private sector, and support emerging industries, thereby increasing business opportunities and job creation.
Al-Jadaan emphasized the government’s long-term fiscal planning approach, ensuring sustained focus on strategic transformational spending to achieve economic and sustainable growth goals. He also underscored the flexibility of public finances in addressing medium- and long-term challenges, highlighting the critical role of the Public Investment Fund (PIF) and the National Development Fund (NDF) in maintaining economic stability.
He further added that the optimistic outlook for the Saudi economy in 2025 is a continuation of the positive momentum seen in recent years. The Pre-Budget Statement forecasts real GDP growth of 4.6% for 2025, reflecting the Kingdom’s commitment to implementing its ambitious strategies, boosting investor confidence, and enhancing its economic standing both regionally and globally.
Despite a global economic slowdown, ongoing challenges, and geopolitical tensions, Al-Jadaan noted that Saudi Arabia’s fiscal position remains strong, characterized by safe levels of government reserves, manageable public debt, and a flexible spending policy that can help the country navigate future crises.
Al-Jadaan also stated that the government plans to continue borrowing, in line with its approved annual borrowing plan, to finance the projected budget deficit and repay debt maturing in FY 2025. Additionally, the government will explore market opportunities for financing activities, including alternative financing mechanisms. He indicated that the public debt portfolio is expected to grow at a measured pace to ensure debt sustainability, in line with increased spending to accelerate the implementation of programs and projects aligned with Saudi Vision 2030.
This Pre-Budget Statement, the seventh consecutive release, is part of the Kingdom’s ongoing efforts to enhance transparency and fiscal disclosure in public finances, and it underscores the government’s commitment to completing reforms that have strengthened its fiscal position amid global economic challenges.
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The new Dorsch Global Executive Board appointed: CEO Ayman Haikal, COO Tanja Baur, and CFO Jon Grady.
Dorsch Global, a leading international consulting and engineering organization operating across Europe, MEAA, the United States, and the United Kingdom, has appointed a new Global Executive Board to spearhead the company’s global strategic initiatives.
Ayman Haikal, an experienced leader with over 33 years in executive management, engineering, project management, and business development, has been named Chief Executive Officer of Dorsch Global. Haikal also holds the dual role of Middle East, Asia, and Africa Region CEO, underscoring the significant emphasis Dorsch Global places on the MEAA region, particularly within the GCC and Northern Africa.
With more than 30 years of his career spent at Dorsch, Haikal has a proven track record of driving significant organic and inorganic growth within the organization, managing signature, complex city-wide projects, and expanding into new sectors and geographies, especially in the United Arab Emirates that Haikal calls his home and the land of opportunity.
CEO of Dorsch Global, Ayman Haikal, said: “The UAE truly is a land of opportunity, fostering growth for both its residents and businesses by providing a dynamic environment where innovation and entrepreneurship thrive, with its forward-thinking policies, strategic location, and world-class infrastructure, the UAE continues to attract talent and investment from around the globe, creating a vibrant ecosystem where ambitious individuals and companies like Dorsch can flourish.”
Haikal’s journey exemplifies how the UAE’s commitment to progress and development enables both personal and professional success. Haikal, through Dorsch MEAA—which includes Dorsch Middle East, Engineering Consultants Group (ECG), Dorsch India, and Dorsch Asia—is overseeing several landmark mega projects at various stages of completion across the MEAA. Notable projects include development of a wide array of major urban communities all across the UAE, massive Operation and Maintenance contracts for the entirety of Abu Dhabi City inclusive of the Western Region and Al Ain, the Intelligent Transportation System for the Riyadh City, the development of Lusail City in Qatar, various airports in India, smart infrastructure for Egypt’s New Capital City, and the management of design and construction for the Urban Forestation Green Riyadh initiative. These projects underscore the company’s expertise and substantial contributions to the region’s infrastructure and economic growth.
CEO of Dorsch Global, Ayman Haikal, said: “In our worldwide family at Dorsch Global, which includes experts from over 70 nations, we unite under a shared vision of building a sustainable tomorrow through innovation, collaboration, and service excellence. This fuels our ability to consistently expand our services, our market sectors and significantly develop our skills to excel in our domains. Our current ambition is to grow our standing as a pioneering and efficient planning and consulting company, while we look to greater success together with our clients and partners in all 50 countries.”
Joining Haikal on the new Global Executive Board are Tanja Baur as Chief Operating Officer, and Jon Grady as Chief Financial Officer. The new board, composed of highly experienced members, is set to steer Dorsch Global towards a prosperous future grounded in innovation.
After a period of strong growth and several acquisitions, the leading worldwide planning and consulting company has strategically realigned its workstreams. In late 2023, the former RSBG Infrastructure Technologies GmbH (RSINTEC) was renamed Dorsch Global GmbH, of which Dorsch MEAA is a part. This connection strengthens its operational synergy while expanding its reach in the MEAA region, and leverages Dorsch Global’s extensive experience and resources to enhance project delivery and client satisfaction.
Dorsch Global, with over 25 brands and over 7,200 employees, manages 12,000 projects across 50 countries, designing and overseeing projects worth over 30 Billion euros in 2023. With a strong presence in the MENA region, particularly in the UAE, KSA, and Egypt, Dorsch MEAA, supported by over 5,000 regional employees, drives infrastructure development and economic growth, shaping sustainable communities and addressing complex challenges globally.
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