The monthslong slump in cryptocurrencies means one of the flashiest business models of the past year may vanish almost as quickly as it appeared.
Around 30 so-called digital asset treasuries, or DATs, hit the public market in 2025. The blueprints varied by company, but the purest form of treasury involved selling equity and debt to fund what was meant to be an endless series of crypto purchases. Investors, many of these companies argued, would get levered exposure to their token of choice and see their crypto holdings per share rise.
But treasuries and other small-cap crypto stocks have almost all collapsed since Bitcoin BTCUSD -0.78%’s selloff late last year, throwing the entire business model into question. Analysts and executives in the industry are convinced the market is now primed for a wave of consolidation that will see struggling companies get acquired, sell off assets, or shape-shift into something new.
Treasuries that prove they can still tap capital markets will survive, Mark Palmer of Benchmark Equity Research tells Barron’s. “Others are going to be faced with some difficult choices.”
Their fate is a cautionary tale for a market that is always looking for shiny, new ideas. Businesses that rely in large part on the enthusiasm of the investors just to operate, let alone succeed, are rarely sustainable. When the excitement fades and the attention goes elsewhere, shareholders are left holding the bag.
The Rise and Fall of Treasuries
It isn’t hard to see why so many crypto entrepreneurs mimicked Strategy, the world’s leading corporate holder of Bitcoin, and its executive chairman, Michael Saylor.
The business model seems simple: “Sell digital credit, improve the balance sheet, buy Bitcoin, and communicate that to the credit and the equity investors,” Saylor explained to investors last year.
More importantly, the model worked—at least for a while. Strategy MSTR -0.09% stock soared more than 2,000% in the three years before its 52-week closing high of $455.90 on July 16, 2025. At one point, it traded at a multiple of 3.9 times the underlying Bitcoin—a premium known in the industry as the market-to-net asset value, or mNAV. Investors saw their crypto-per-share rise, which was the entire appeal of the stock in the first place. Strategy now trades around $130 after Bitcoin’s prolonged slump.
Strategy didn’t respond to Barron’s requests for comment. The company has shown no signs of liquidating its holdings, with Saylor telling CNBC in February that Strategy could withstand even a 90% drawdown in Bitcoin.
Sensing an opportunity as crypto surged last year, dozens of new ventures pulled off reverse takeovers of failing listed companies or went public via special-purpose acquisition company, or SPAC, mergers. Many of them did their initial raises at an mNAV above 1, meaning they went live at a market capitalization greater than their underlying crypto assets.
By September, treasuries held $106 billion worth of crypto, according to data provider Blockworks, up from $17 billion a year earlier. That isn’t even counting businesses like Trump Media & Technology Group DJT +0.97% and GameStop GME +0.37%, which bought Bitcoin as an ancillary strategy.
When investors are willing to pay for $150 worth of shares to facilitate the purchase of $100 of crypto, a rational actor will take that deal. If a company can repeat the trick several times over, suddenly it has a business. Buy $55 billion worth of crypto, like Strategy, and you have a gigantic business.
But if crypto prices decline and investor interest plunges, that deal isn’t available anymore. Then the company just has a digital vault full of tokens. That is where we are now.
Bitcoin has plummeted nearly 50% since reaching a record high of $126.96 in October. Other coins have had similar drawdowns. Those mNAV premiums have turned into discounts in most cases, with 18 of the 27 treasuries tracked by Blockworks trading below 1 mNAV.
Christian Lopez, head of blockchain and digital assets at Cohen & Company, noticed investor interest starting to dissipate in September. By the next month, Lopez says, the arbitrage trade that had spawned so many companies was dead.
The Great Consolidation
The consensus in the crypto world is that the digital-asset treasury craze went too far. Once meme coins and small tokens started getting their own treasuries, the space became more of a circus than an innovative new industry.
“I think for us, the alarm bells started going off a little bit when you started to see, like, crazy s___ coming to market,” says Parker White, chief operating officer at DeFi Development, which used a reverse takeover last year to buy Solana.
And in a world where investors can buy Bitcoin exchange-traded funds IBIT +0.91% or just hold crypto directly, markets don’t have room for dozens of highly levered, indistinct treasuries. “Differentiation” is the buzzword now, and only companies with clear advantages will last, says Benchmark’s Palmer.
“Digital asset treasury companies are here to stay, but most likely in a significantly smaller number than we currently see,” he adds.
Strategy has a leg up because of its scale, Saylor’s hero-like status among Bitcoin believers, and its $1.4 billion in cash reserves to help cover debt and dividend payments. Other companies may dominate a specific coin or market. Japan-based Metaplanet, for instance, has attracted a following as a proxy for Bitcoin because Japan taxes crypto gains at a higher rate than other capital gains. Better to buy the stock than the token.
Among the smaller players, consolidation has already started. Bitcoin treasury Strive completed an all-stock acquisition of smaller rival Semler Scientific in January, a move multiple industry experts pointed out.
Ryan Navi, the chief investment officer at Forward Industries, a company with around $600 million in Solana tokens, told Barron’s the company was seeking out targets among struggling peers.
“We’re not trying to screw anyone, but the market’s the market, right?” Navi said. “If we can come in and help them avoid the worst-case scenario, and it’s positive for our shareholders at the same time, that’s definitely something we’ll do.”
But the moves aren’t straightforward. A shareholder of a treasury trading at a discount may prefer the company liquidate its holdings and distribute the proceeds than sell shares to a rival for less than par. There is also a question of whether the buyer will get much value from merging two underperforming asset pools. “I’m not sure how you make one plus one equal more than two,” says Gus Galá, an analyst at Monness, Crespi, Hardt.
Pivoting Away From Treasuries
Other companies are exiting the treasury game voluntarily—at least for now. They fall into two categories: those trying to append operating businesses to their crypto stockpiles and those using financial moves to appease shareholders.
The former strategy was a favorite among crypto executives holding Ethereum or Solana, which can generate yield when staked. Staking is the process of locking up one’s holdings to validate transactions on the blockchain in exchange for a percentage fee. That yield provides a cash flow even in a depressed crypto market.
Andrew Keys, chairman of an Ethereum treasury called The Ether Machine, says the shifting market dynamics haven’t forced the company to second-guess its SPAC merger, which is still awaiting completion. It can make a small sum each year and wait for a crypto resurgence.
“We’re not a melting ice cube because basically we’ve got, back of the napkin, $2 billion,” Keys tells Barron’s. “Back of the napkin, that generates 3% of income if we manage it properly.”
Companies like The Ether Machine are looking beyond staking, too. Some executives pitched tokenization businesses—essentially packaging equities or cash flows from real-world assets into fractional shares that investors can trade on a blockchain ledger. Some also alluded to new opportunities that may emerge as institutions increasingly adopt stablecoins and blockchain infrastructure.
But these plans are often vague. Because most treasuries hit the market looking for capital to help accumulate crypto, they started without significant operating businesses. They are trying to set up entire business segments on the fly, all while their share prices sink and their mNAV discounts widen.
On the other end of the spectrum, some companies are undoing their initial trades. If buying crypto is a no-brainer when you get paid a premium to do so, then selling crypto is equally rational when you can buy back stock at a discount.
ProCap Financial, a Bitcoin treasury led by entrepreneur Anthony Pompliano, has repurchased more than 1.5 million shares in just the past few weeks. The company also acquired artificial-intelligence lab CFO Silvia as it tries to broaden into AI and financial services.
“We are in attack mode,” Pompliano said in a statement after one of several buybacks last month. “If the market wants to irrationally sell us shares below NAV [net asset value], we will keep aggressively buying them.”
The buybacks may signal an admission of defeat to some crypto evangelists. But treasury executives often have a background in corporate finance, analysts noted. Management will look for ways to deploy capital, even if the plans disappoint those who believe in buying and holding crypto no matter the price.
What’s Next for Shareholders?
Absent a rebound in crypto prices, these pivots won’t make investors whole. No matter the underlying asset, virtually every major holder of crypto has plummeted from its peak last year.
DeFi Development is down 89% since its all-time closing high of $42.50 a share in May. Strive has fallen 96% from its record high of $240 that same month. Even Metaplanet, with its unique geographic advantage, has tumbled 83% on the Tokyo Stock Exchange since June.
Some, like DeFi Development, at least have left long-term shareholders better off than before. The stock has quintupled since DeFi Development’s reverse takeover of Janover, a struggling microcap software vendor. Others have left shareholders from the previous company with even deeper losses.
Still, most of these companies are little-known names with low valuations and light trading volume. They rode a wave of investor enthusiasm at a time when crypto seemed like it was heading to the moon. As it turns out, digital asset treasuries were more like the “canary in the coal mine” for the end of crypto’s last upcycle, argues Galá, the Crespi, Monness, Hardt analyst.
The stocks were always risky bets, designed to capture volatility and invite speculation. They won’t get any less risky in the months ahead as the different companies jostle to emerge from crypto’s collapse intact. Some will persevere, but investors who try to identify winners and losers do so at their own peril.