Saudi Arabian capital markets are on a tear this year, with the number of bond and equity deals on course to break all records as capital pours into the country to finance trillions of dollars of investments in new cities, new industries – and (in theory at least) a new economy no longer dependent on oil.
Bond markets have led the charge, with 76 deals this year, up 77% on last year’s already record tally. The amount raised has surpassed US$70bn, which is up 40% on this point a year earlier, after US$20bn of deals from the Saudi government and US$8bn from oil giant Saudi Aramco.
Equity markets have also been on a roll, with 29 IPOs – a record for this point in the year – raising US$3.6bn amid a frenzy of buy orders. The US$1.1bn listing in May of airline Flynas was covered 100 times and the US$520m IPO of developer Umm Al Qura in March was covered 200 times.
While loan volumes are down on last year’s record, there has been some solid deal activity such as the US$7bn facility signed in January by Saudi sovereign wealth fund, Public Investment Fund.
As a result of all this activity, investment banks are set for a bumper haul in fees, with senior bankers pointing to Saudi as a particular highlight during a year that started slowly but has since taken off.
Critical role
Capital markets are slated to play a critical role in meeting the ambitious targets of the country’s transformational Vision 2030 program, announced amid much fanfare almost a decade ago. Moody’s predicts US$2trn of investment will be needed over the next four years if the country is to meet those goals.
“A growing economy and the financial demands of the mega projects underway are hoovering up cash faster than the domestic system can supply it,” said Nick Smallwood, a strategist at M&G, who says the country’s banking system is struggling to keep pace with the scale of investments.
It is little wonder given the size of some Vision 2030 projects. Neom, a futuristic city on the Red Sea, is projected to cost US$8.8trn to build, assuming it actually happens – 25 times the annual government budget. With demand for loans rising faster than deposits, banks are increasingly borrowing from abroad to keep up.
“The KSA complex is structurally increasing its reliance on international debt markets,” said Smallwood. “Banks are taking an ever greater share of Saudi issuance. KSA is therefore increasingly dependent on international investment to fund its domestic priorities.”
Acutely aware of the need to attract more capital, the country has signed multiple deals over recent months with the likes of BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, Goldman Sachs, Macquarie and State Street to unlock inflows. It has also broken into new markets, with bonds in euros, sterling and the green market.
Financial market instruments that are common in other countries but rarely or never seen in Saudi have also been launched. PIF launched a commercial paper program in June, while the Saudi Real Estate Refinance Company in August printed the country’s first ever residential mortgage-backed security.
Slow progress
But progress has not been as fast as hoped. When Vision 2030 was launched, there was talk of 150 state-owned companies being privatized, unlocking US$300bn for Vision 2030-linked investments. Huge excitement followed 2019’s record US$29.4bn IPO of Aramco – but the pipeline quickly dried up.
Years later, IPO activity has picked up but many deals have traded down sharply, indicating ongoing liquidity issues. Tellingly, the market capitalization of exchange operator Tadawul has actually fallen over the last three years, despite the surge in listings.
On the bond side, progress in expanding the market has also been slow – and dominated by government or quasi-government issuers. Last year, PIF and Aramco accounted for about 80% of all non-financial corporate issuance. Barely any private non-financial companies are tapping bond markets.
“An acceleration of cumulative private sector investment will be required by 2030 to sustain growth momentum,” said Aziz Al Sammarai, an analyst at Moody’s, who added that the need to finance projects like World Expo 2030 and FIFA World Cup 2034 should boost issuance.
“Strategic investments across sectors is likely to spur an increase in equity and debt issuance. Increased capital market activity will, over time, deepen Saudi Arabia’s financial markets, broaden investor participation and support the development of a more diversified and resilient funding base.”
Deals with financial institutions to attract further liquidity and deepen the country’s capital markets also continue. Last month, Saudi Arabia was added to a JP Morgan bond index, in a deal that could attract around US$5bn of foreign inflows into its sukuk and bond markets.
PIF announcement
A catalyst for further activity could be just around the corner. PIF, which is driving much of the Vision 2030 agenda, including privatization of government assets and incentivizing private sector investment, is expected to announce a big “update” very soon.
“In the coming two months or so we will set the new strategy for PIF, which is a continuation from the original one … from 2030 all the way to 2040 and beyond,” chairman Yasir Al-Rumayyan told a Washington event last month. The announcement could lead to greater clarity – and more privatizations.
The clock is ticking. Oil revenues have fallen by about a third from their peak, and the US$200bn they contribute to the public purse is not enough to balance the books. The government has run a deficit in 10 of the past 11 years, despite its vast oil wealth, and is on course to run a larger-than-expected deficit this year.
If it is to wean itself off oil and create a more sustainable, diversified economy then broadening access to capital markets will be key.